Beans

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.74

14.99 gems

Advertised RTP

89.95%

EV $8.76 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.36%

5,982 openings, odds method

Variance

66.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70.22%±62.21655 openings

7 days

85.43%±22.205,145 openings

30 days

83.36%±20.595,982 openings

since tracking started

83.36%±20.595,982 openings

7.5%70.3%133.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	655	70.22%±62.2	−0.6σ	odds
7d	5,145	85.43%±22.2	−0.4σ	odds
30d	5,982	83.36%±20.6	−0.6σ	odds
All	5,982	83.36%±20.6	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,098 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$5,705 8,777 gems	1.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$5,426 8,348 gems	3.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · Emerald	1 in 20,000	$5,069 7,799 gems	2.9%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$3,377 5,196 gems	3.9%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,534 3,898 gems	2.9%	1	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$1,612 2,480 gems	1.8%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$868 1,335 gems	5.8%	2	3.6	0.56×
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$472 725 gems	2.7%	5	3.0	1.64×
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$251 385 gems	2.9%	6	6.1	0.98×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$181 278 gems	4.1%	12	12.2	0.98×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 500	$125 192 gems	2.9%	7	12.2	0.57×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$53.44 82.22 gems	12.2%	116	122.0	0.95×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$43.11 66.32 gems	19.7%	216	243.9	0.89×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$27.03 41.58 gems	9.3%	181	182.9	0.99×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$21.92 33.72 gems	7.5%	175	182.9	0.96×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$14.51 22.33 gems	5.0%	201	182.9	1.10×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$10.31 15.86 gems	1.2%	42	61.0	0.69×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$7.85 12.07 gems	0.9%	55	61.0	0.90×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.91 6.01 gems	0.4%	69	61.0	1.13×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	81.3%	$1.04 1.6 gems	9.7%	5,008	4960.7	1.01×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covertAwesome$9.7414.99 gems$3,3775,196 gems346.6x3d

AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covertDeniaL$9.7414.99 gems$2,5343,898 gems260.1x5d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$9.7414.99 gems$1,6122,480 gems165.5x2d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$9.7414.99 gems$8681,335 gems89.06x3d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$9.7414.99 gems$8681,335 gems89.06x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$9.7414.99 gems$1.041.6 gems0.11x6m

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalsmiffingtable$9.7414.99 gems$1.041.6 gems0.11x6m

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$9.7414.99 gems$1.041.6 gems0.11x12m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$9.74	89.95%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 12.4%other 0.0%classified 4.0%#d32ee6 0.2%restricted 2.0%Mythical 81.3%best hit $3,377 (346.6x)