Blood River

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$433.25

667 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $389.92 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.27%

461 openings, odds method

Variance

11.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 40

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

74.33%±36.48323 openings

30 days

78.27%±30.54461 openings

since tracking started

78.27%±30.54461 openings

-0.5%85.5%171.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	67.02%±103.7	—	odds
7d	323	74.33%±36.5	−0.8σ	odds
30d	461	78.27%±30.5	−0.8σ	odds
All	461	78.27%±30.5	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 461 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$8,450 13,000 gems	54.2%	9	11.5	0.78×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$4,141 6,371 gems	26.6%	11	11.5	0.95×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$898 1,381 gems	5.8%	10	11.5	0.87×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$610 939 gems	3.9%	12	11.5	1.04×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$391 601 gems	5.0%	26	23.0	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$155 238 gems	2.0%	26	23.0	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$94.38 145 gems	1.2%	19	23.0	0.82×
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$47.47 73.03 gems	0.6%	20	23.0	0.87×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	20.0%	$10.42 16.03 gems	0.5%	99	92.2	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	25.0%	$2.89 4.44 gems	0.2%	123	115.2	1.07×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	25.0%	$1.03 1.58 gems	0.1%	106	115.3	0.92×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$433667 gems$8,45013,000 gems19.50x1h

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryKick.com/Romix$433667 gems$8,45013,000 gems19.50x3d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$433667 gems$8,45013,000 gems19.50x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$433667 gems$8,45013,000 gems19.50x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryxCK97x On Kick | CODE : CK97$433667 gems$8,45013,000 gems19.50x8d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$433667 gems$8,45013,000 gems19.50x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$433667 gems$4,1416,371 gems9.56x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$433667 gems$8,45013,000 gems19.50x1h

Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$433667 gems$94.38145 gems0.22x1h

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$433667 gems$2.894.44 gems0.01x1h

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert$433667 gems$10.4216.03 gems0.02x1h

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$433667 gems$1.031.58 gems0.00x1h

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedKick/HarryJZ$433667 gems$1.031.58 gems0.00x1h

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert$433667 gems$10.4216.03 gems0.02x3h

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$433667 gems$2.894.44 gems0.01x3h

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert$433667 gems$10.4216.03 gems0.02x3h

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$433667 gems$1.031.58 gems0.00x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$433	90.00%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 7.5%classified 7.5%covert 25.0%restricted 35.0%Legendary 25.0%best hit $8,450 (19.50x)