Chloroplast

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$30.99
47.68 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $27.89 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.88%
2,644 openings, odds method
Variance
105.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
356 openings · below min
7 days
107.78%±42.642,219 openings
30 days
105.88%±39.062,644 openings
since tracking started
105.88%±39.062,644 openings
-0.5%83.5%167.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h35660.38%±106.5—odds
7d2,219107.78%±42.6+0.8σodds
30d2,644105.88%±39.1+0.8σodds
All2,644105.88%±39.1+0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,706 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$9,062 13,942 gems32.5%32.71.11×
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$2,924 4,498 gems21.0%95.41.66×
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$368 566 gems13.2%2227.10.81×
P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50$191 294 gems13.7%6054.11.11×
AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 50$117 180 gems8.4%4754.10.87×
★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold1 in 33$45.53 70.04 gems4.9%8681.21.06×
SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$15.50 23.85 gems2.8%133135.30.98×
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted10.0%$2.28 3.51 gems0.8%295270.61.09×
AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff10.0%$1.86 2.86 gems0.7%262270.60.97×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical10.0%$1.79 2.76 gems0.6%275270.61.02×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff25.0%$1.22 1.87 gems1.1%659676.50.97×
Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d931.7%$0.33 0.5 gems0.4%855857.81.00×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$30.9947.68 gems$9,06213,942 gems292.4x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$30.9947.68 gems$9,06213,942 gems292.4x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$30.9947.68 gems$9,06213,942 gems292.4x

Latest dropsnewest first

Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9$30.9947.68 gems$0.330.5 gems0.01x
Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9$30.9947.68 gems$0.330.5 gems0.01x
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$30.9947.68 gems$1.221.87 gems0.04x
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$30.9947.68 gems$1.221.87 gems0.04x
Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9$30.9947.68 gems$0.330.5 gems0.01x
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$30.9947.68 gems$1.221.87 gems0.04x
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$30.9947.68 gems$1.221.87 gems0.04x
Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9$30.9947.68 gems$0.330.5 gems0.01x
Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9$30.9947.68 gems$0.330.5 gems0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$30.9989.99%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.1%extraordinary 0.2%restricted 16.0%classified 2.0%gold 3.0%#4b69ff 35.0%Mythical 10.0%#5e98d9 31.7%best hit $9,062 (292.4x)