Chroma 3 Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.90
2.92 gems
Advertised RTP
89.82%
EV $1.70 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.51%
11.2K openings, odds method
Variance
156.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 595
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertTitoDabel juice.gg$1.902.92 gems$8061,240 gems424.5x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.90 | 89.82% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%covert 0.8%sunny 0.0%other 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 16.0%Rare 22.8%mil spec 34.3%milspec 22.9%best hit $934 (492.1x)