Clash Royalty
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$88.37
136 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $79.53 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
122.75%
666 openings, odds method
Variance
9.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (99.02% – 146.47%, 666 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 708 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $1,812 2,787 gems | 45.6% | 22 | 14.2 | 1.55× |
| Sticker | King on the Fieldsticker · high | 1 in 33 | $683 1,050 gems | 25.7% | 24 | 21.2 | 1.13× |
| CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $283 436 gems | 10.7% | 25 | 21.2 | 1.18× |
| P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $66.18 102 gems | 2.5% | 31 | 21.2 | 1.46× |
| FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet | 1 in 11 | $47.67 73.34 gems | 5.4% | 75 | 63.7 | 1.18× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $34.26 52.71 gems | 4.3% | 59 | 70.8 | 0.83× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $16.15 24.85 gems | 2.0% | 63 | 70.8 | 0.89× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $8.57 13.18 gems | 1.1% | 78 | 70.8 | 1.10× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 25.0% | $5.06 7.79 gems | 1.6% | 164 | 177.0 | 0.93× |
| FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $3.54 5.44 gems | 1.1% | 167 | 177.0 | 0.94× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $88.37 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.0%high 3.0%restricted 28.0%mil spec 3.0%violet 9.0%industrial 10.0%covert 20.0%red 25.0%best hit $1,812 (20.50x)