Crown Reserve
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.89
32.14 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $18.80 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.50%
1,044 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,047 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 40 | $260 400 gems | 34.6% | 23 | 26.2 | 0.88× |
| Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $129 199 gems | 17.2% | 25 | 26.2 | 0.96× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $46.80 72 gems | 6.2% | 28 | 26.2 | 1.07× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 40 | $36.87 56.73 gems | 4.9% | 28 | 26.2 | 1.07× |
| P90 | ScaraB Rush (Factory New)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $28.38 43.66 gems | 15.1% | 107 | 104.7 | 1.02× |
| M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $20.92 32.19 gems | 11.1% | 95 | 104.7 | 0.91× |
| PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $10.19 15.68 gems | 5.4% | 101 | 104.7 | 0.96× |
| Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $3.43 5.28 gems | 2.7% | 161 | 157.0 | 1.03× |
| P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)weapon · uncommon | 15.0% | $1.44 2.22 gems | 1.2% | 149 | 157.0 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 30.0% | $0.98 1.5 gems | 1.6% | 330 | 314.1 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $20.89 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 2.5%covert 5.0%#8847ff 2.5%violet 10.0%classified 10.0%restricted 25.0%uncommon 15.0%Legendary 30.0%best hit —