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CS:GO Weapon Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$31.08
47.82 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $27.97 from 74 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.04%
737 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
94.53%±18.64329 openings
7 days
91.83%±13.18658 openings
30 days
92.04%±12.45737 openings
since tracking started
92.04%±12.45737 openings
75.0%94.5%114.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h32994.53%±18.6+0.5σodds
7d65891.83%±13.2+0.3σodds
30d73792.04%±12.5+0.3σodds
All73792.04%±12.5+0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 761 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,684 5,667 gems0.5%00.0—
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,119 4,799 gems0.4%00.0—
★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,576 2,425 gems0.2%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$1,277 1,964 gems0.2%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,169 1,798 gems0.2%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems0.2%00.0—
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems0.2%00.0—
★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$943 1,451 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$800 1,230 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$780 1,200 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 25,000$770 1,185 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 25,000$760 1,169 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$747 1,150 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$735 1,131 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 25,000$702 1,080 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$614 945 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$614 945 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$611 940 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$567 873 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$541 832 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$487 749 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$483 742 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$458 704 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$456 702 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$442 681 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$442 680 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.1%10.0—
★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$413 636 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$394 606 gems0.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$388 597 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$358 550 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$354 545 gems0.1%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$351 540 gems0.1%00.0—
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 156$320 492 gems7.3%64.91.23×
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$300 461 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Bayonet | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 25,000$284 436 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$270 415 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$228 350 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$223 343 gems0.0%00.0—
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 63$214 329 gems12.2%1712.21.40×
★ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$212 325 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$211 325 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 25,000$211 324 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$210 323 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$209 321 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$201 309 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$194 299 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$182 281 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$155 239 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$155 238 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$143 220 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$139 214 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$135 208 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$133 205 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$109 167 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$85.51 132 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 25,000$80.67 124 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$78.01 120 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$75.74 117 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$74.56 115 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$73.63 113 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$66.05 102 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$63.30 97.38 gems0.0%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$62.86 96.7 gems0.0%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 63$55.53 85.43 gems3.2%912.20.74×
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 19$53.14 81.76 gems10.1%4540.51.11×
USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 19$45.88 70.59 gems8.7%3040.50.74×
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 19$45.68 70.28 gems8.7%4040.50.99×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare26.6%$18.55 28.54 gems17.7%198202.70.98×
MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue26.6%$14.51 22.32 gems13.8%199202.70.98×
AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec26.6%$14.17 21.8 gems13.5%216202.71.07×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$31.0847.82 gems$14.5122.32 gems0.47x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare$31.0847.82 gems$18.5528.54 gems0.60x
USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$31.0847.82 gems$45.8870.59 gems1.48x
MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$31.0847.82 gems$14.5122.32 gems0.47x
MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$31.0847.82 gems$14.5122.32 gems0.47x
AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil specSnail$31.0847.82 gems$14.1721.8 gems0.46x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare$31.0847.82 gems$18.5528.54 gems0.60x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare$31.0847.82 gems$18.5528.54 gems0.60x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare$31.0847.82 gems$18.5528.54 gems0.60x
AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$31.0847.82 gems$14.1721.8 gems0.46x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$31.0889.99%74
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%other 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 16.0%Rare 26.6%blue 26.6%mil spec 26.6%best hit —