CS:GO Weapon Case 2

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.51

11.56 gems

Advertised RTP

89.93%

EV $6.76 from 77 items

Observed RTP, 30d

119.13%

1,408 openings, odds method

Variance

29.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

228.22%±90.39139 openings

7 days

124.89%±30.201,245 openings

30 days

119.13%±28.401,408 openings

since tracking started

119.13%±28.401,408 openings

89.5%204.5%319.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.93% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.73% – 147.53%, 1,408 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	139	228.22%±90.4	+3.0σ	odds
7d	1,245	124.89%±30.2	+2.3σ	odds
30d	1,408	119.13%±28.4	+2.0σ	odds
All	1,408	119.13%±28.4	+2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,432 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,684 5,667 gems	2.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,119 4,799 gems	1.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,576 2,425 gems	0.9%	1	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$1,277 1,964 gems	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,169 1,798 gems	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	0.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$943 1,451 gems	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$800 1,230 gems	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$780 1,200 gems	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$770 1,185 gems	0.5%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$760 1,169 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$747 1,150 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$735 1,131 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 25,000	$702 1,080 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$614 945 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$611 940 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$568 874 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$567 873 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$541 832 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$541 832 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$487 749 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$483 742 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$458 704 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$456 702 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$442 681 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$442 680 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$413 636 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$394 606 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$388 597 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$358 550 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$354 545 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$351 540 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$300 461 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$284 436 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$270 415 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$228 350 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$223 343 gems	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$212 325 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$211 325 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$211 324 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$210 323 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$209 321 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$201 309 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$194 299 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$182 281 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$155 239 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$155 238 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$143 220 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$139 214 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$135 208 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$133 205 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$109 167 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$85.51 132 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$80.67 124 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$78.01 120 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$75.74 117 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$74.56 115 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$73.63 113 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$66.05 102 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$63.30 97.38 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$62.86 96.7 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$36.51 56.17 gems	3.5%	8	9.2	0.87×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$29.43 45.27 gems	7.0%	37	22.9	1.61×
USP-S \| Serum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$29.33 45.13 gems	6.9%	15	22.9	0.65×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$9.67 14.87 gems	5.7%	64	57.2	1.12×
SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$8.89 13.67 gems	21.0%	237	228.9	1.04×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$4.69 7.21 gems	2.8%	56	57.2	0.98×
Nova \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$4.46 6.86 gems	2.6%	51	57.2	0.89×
Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	16.0%	$3.67 5.64 gems	8.7%	243	228.9	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$3.24 4.98 gems	7.7%	217	228.9	0.95×
P250 \| Hive (Factory New)weapon · milspec	16.0%	$2.92 4.49 gems	6.9%	220	228.9	0.96×
FAMAS \| Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$2.50 3.85 gems	7.4%	279	286.0	0.98×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$7.5111.56 gems$1,5762,425 gems209.8x12h

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$7.5111.56 gems$1,1691,798 gems155.6x5d

★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$7.5111.56 gems$1,0491,614 gems139.7x2d

★ Karambit | ★ (Vanilla)knife$7.5111.56 gems$7701,185 gems102.5x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.5111.56 gems$3.244.98 gems0.43x4h

FAMAS | Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.5111.56 gems$2.503.85 gems0.33x4h

P250 | Hive (Factory New)weapon · milspec$7.5111.56 gems$2.924.49 gems0.39x4h

P250 | Hive (Factory New)weapon · milspec𝗚︎𝗲︎𝗲︎𝗴$7.5111.56 gems$2.924.49 gems0.39x4h

SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.5111.56 gems$8.8913.67 gems1.18x5h

FAMAS | Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.5111.56 gems$2.503.85 gems0.33x5h

SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.5111.56 gems$8.8913.67 gems1.18x5h

Tec-9 | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · Mil SpecET1AM$7.5111.56 gems$3.675.64 gems0.49x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC	$7.51	89.93%	77

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%other 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 12.0%mil spec 51.9%Mil Spec 16.0%milspec 16.0%best hit $1,576 (209.8x)