CS:GO Weapon Case 3

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.44

12.99 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $7.60 from 77 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.45%

786 openings, odds method

Variance

23.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90 openings · below min

7 days

79.12%±38.11613 openings

30 days

79.45%±33.66786 openings

since tracking started

79.45%±33.66786 openings

-0.5%88.5%177.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	90	77.57%±99.5	—	odds
7d	613	79.12%±38.1	−0.6σ	odds
30d	786	79.45%±33.7	−0.6σ	odds
All	786	79.45%±33.7	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 788 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,684 5,667 gems	1.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,119 4,799 gems	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,576 2,425 gems	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$1,277 1,964 gems	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,169 1,798 gems	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$943 1,451 gems	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$800 1,230 gems	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$780 1,200 gems	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambitknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$770 1,185 gems	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$760 1,169 gems	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$747 1,150 gems	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$735 1,131 gems	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 25,000	$702 1,080 gems	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$614 945 gems	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$611 940 gems	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$568 874 gems	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$567 873 gems	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$541 832 gems	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$487 749 gems	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$483 742 gems	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$458 704 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$456 702 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$442 681 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$442 680 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$413 636 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$394 606 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$388 597 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$358 550 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$354 545 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$351 540 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$300 461 gems	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$284 436 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$270 415 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$228 350 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$223 343 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$212 325 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$211 325 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$211 324 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$210 323 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$209 321 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$201 309 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$194 299 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$182 281 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$155 239 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$155 238 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$143 220 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$139 214 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$135 208 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$133 205 gems	0.1%	1	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$109 167 gems	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$85.51 132 gems	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$80.67 124 gems	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$78.01 120 gems	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$75.74 117 gems	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$74.56 115 gems	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$73.63 113 gems	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$66.05 102 gems	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$63.30 97.38 gems	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$62.86 96.7 gems	0.0%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$27.06 41.63 gems	5.7%	12	12.6	0.95×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$25.95 39.93 gems	5.5%	12	12.6	0.95×
USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$11.29 17.37 gems	23.8%	149	126.0	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$9.57 14.73 gems	20.1%	127	126.0	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$8.07 12.41 gems	4.2%	35	31.5	1.11×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$5.65 8.69 gems	11.9%	124	126.0	0.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 156	$5.60 8.62 gems	0.5%	4	5.0	0.79×
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$4.02 6.19 gems	2.1%	29	31.5	0.92×
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$4.01 6.17 gems	2.1%	33	31.5	1.05×
Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$3.75 5.77 gems	2.0%	26	31.5	0.83×
Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$1.29 1.98 gems	2.7%	129	126.0	1.02×
P2000 \| Red FragCam (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	16.0%	$0.98 1.51 gems	2.1%	107	126.0	0.85×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.4412.99 gems$11.2917.37 gems1.34x41m

Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.4412.99 gems$1.291.98 gems0.15x41m

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$8.4412.99 gems$4.016.17 gems0.47x41m

USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.4412.99 gems$11.2917.37 gems1.34x41m

Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New)weapon · mil specGΞΞONE$8.4412.99 gems$9.5714.73 gems1.13x41m

Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted$8.4412.99 gems$4.026.19 gems0.48x1h

USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.4412.99 gems$11.2917.37 gems1.34x1h

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.4412.99 gems$5.658.69 gems0.67x1h

Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$8.4412.99 gems$1.291.98 gems0.15x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$8.44	89.99%	77

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 3.2%mil spec 63.9%restricted 12.0%#eb4b4b 0.6%#8847ff 4.0%Mil Spec Grade 16.0%best hit —