Dreams & Nightmares Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.51
2.33 gems
Advertised RTP
89.82%
EV $1.36 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.29%
22.3K openings, odds method
Variance
453.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,250
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$1.512.33 gems$1,3322,050 gems879.6x
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$1.512.33 gems$1,3322,050 gems879.6x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.51 | 89.82% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%sunny 0.0%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%rare 0.0%red 0.3%Legendary 2.1%classified 1.1%#8847ff 6.4%Restricted 3.2%violet 3.2%Mythical 3.2%milspec 13.3%Rare 40.0%blue 26.7%best hit $2,509 (1,657x)