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Drew

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$506.38
779 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $455.74 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.91%
567 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
84 openings · below min
7 days
73.64%±24.94494 openings
30 days
76.91%±23.28567 openings
since tracking started
76.91%±23.28567 openings
34.5%95.5%156.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h8495.50%±60.5—odds
7d49473.64%±24.9−1.3σodds
30d56776.91%±23.3−1.1σodds
All56776.91%±23.3−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 567 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 2,000$27.3K 42,011 gems3.0%00.3—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 500$11.4K 17,568 gems5.0%11.10.88×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 333$9,103 14,004 gems6.0%01.70.00×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 200$8,775 13,500 gems9.6%32.81.06×
AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 182$6,462 9,942 gems7.8%23.10.64×
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 154$5,097 7,841 gems7.3%53.71.36×
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband1 in 118$3,825 5,884 gems7.1%34.80.62×
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 111$3,777 5,811 gems7.5%55.10.98×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 125$3,707 5,703 gems6.5%144.53.09×
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100$2,965 4,561 gems6.5%85.71.41×
AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 91$2,455 3,777 gems5.9%76.21.12×
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 83$1,043 1,604 gems2.7%26.80.29×
Souvenir SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 80$983 1,512 gems2.7%97.11.27×
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 69$923 1,420 gems2.9%28.20.24×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 67$683 1,050 gems2.2%148.51.65×
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 67$574 883 gems1.9%58.50.59×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covert1 in 67$573 882 gems1.9%98.51.06×
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 67$559 860 gems1.8%68.50.71×
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 67$545 839 gems1.8%58.50.59×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 67$536 825 gems1.8%68.50.71×
SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified1 in 67$455 700 gems1.5%118.51.29×
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 67$382 588 gems1.3%158.51.76×
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 67$218 335 gems0.7%128.51.41×
Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 27$214 329 gems1.7%1821.00.86×
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 33$125 193 gems0.8%2117.01.23×
SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 25$74.91 115 gems0.7%2122.70.93×
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified1 in 20$45.97 70.72 gems0.5%2528.30.88×
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified10.0%$17.38 26.74 gems0.4%6156.71.08×
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted50.0%$3.63 5.58 gems0.4%291283.51.03×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$506779 gems$11.4K17,568 gems22.55x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$506779 gems$8,77513,500 gems17.33x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$506779 gems$8,77513,500 gems17.33x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$506779 gems$8,77513,500 gems17.33x
AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$506779 gems$6,4629,942 gems12.76x
AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$506779 gems$6,4629,942 gems12.76x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryOla$506779 gems$5,0977,841 gems10.07x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$506779 gems$5,0977,841 gems10.07x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$506779 gems$5,0977,841 gems10.07x
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$506779 gems$5,0977,841 gems10.07x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$506779 gems$3.635.58 gems0.01x
SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified$506779 gems$74.91115 gems0.15x
Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted$506779 gems$214329 gems0.42x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$506779 gems$45.9770.72 gems0.09x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$506779 gems$3.635.58 gems0.01x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedOla$506779 gems$3.635.58 gems0.01x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$506779 gems$3.635.58 gems0.01x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$506779 gems$3.635.58 gems0.01x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$506779 gems$3.635.58 gems0.01x
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$506779 gems$125193 gems0.25x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$50690.00%29
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.9%sunny 0.2%extraordinary 6.1%contraband 0.9%Covert 3.8%#eb4b4b 1.2%classified 21.8%restricted 56.7%Classified 1.5%best hit $11.4K (22.55x)