eSports 2013 Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$16.43
25.27 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.78 from 74 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.93%
1,847 openings, odds method
Variance
9.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
124.96%±23.63661 openings
7 days
100.59%±15.091,621 openings
30 days
98.93%±14.141,847 openings
since tracking started
98.93%±14.141,847 openings
84.0%116.5%149.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h661124.96%±23.6+2.9σodds
7d1,621100.59%±15.1+1.4σodds
30d1,84798.93%±14.1+1.2σodds
All1,84798.93%±14.1+1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,921 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,684 5,667 gems1.0%10.1—
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,119 4,799 gems0.8%00.1—
★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,576 2,425 gems0.4%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$1,277 1,964 gems0.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,169 1,798 gems0.3%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems0.3%00.1—
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems0.3%00.1—
★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$943 1,451 gems0.3%00.1—
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$800 1,230 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$780 1,200 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Karambitknife · covert1 in 25,000$770 1,185 gems0.2%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert1 in 25,000$760 1,169 gems0.2%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$747 1,150 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$735 1,131 gems0.2%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 25,000$702 1,080 gems0.2%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$614 945 gems0.2%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$611 940 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$568 874 gems0.2%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$567 873 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$541 832 gems0.1%10.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$487 749 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$483 742 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$458 704 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$456 702 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$442 681 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$442 680 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$413 636 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$394 606 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$388 597 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$358 550 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$354 545 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$351 540 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$300 461 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | ★ (Vanilla)knife1 in 25,000$284 436 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$270 415 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$228 350 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$223 343 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$212 325 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$211 325 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$211 324 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$210 323 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$209 321 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$201 309 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$194 299 gems0.1%00.1—
AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 63$192 296 gems20.8%3030.70.98×
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$182 281 gems0.0%00.1—
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 63$173 267 gems18.8%3630.71.17×
★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$155 239 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$155 238 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$143 220 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$139 214 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$135 208 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$133 205 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$109 167 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$85.51 132 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$80.67 124 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$78.01 120 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$75.74 117 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$74.56 115 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$73.63 113 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$66.05 102 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$63.30 97.38 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$62.86 96.7 gems0.0%00.1—
P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 156$27.79 42.75 gems1.2%1412.31.14×
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 19$21.44 32.99 gems7.7%111102.31.08×
P250 | Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 19$17.11 26.33 gems6.2%114102.31.11×
Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 19$16.55 25.46 gems6.0%94102.30.92×
M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec26.6%$11.11 17.09 gems20.0%498511.80.97×
MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec26.6%$3.37 5.18 gems6.1%504511.80.98×
FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec26.6%$2.42 3.72 gems4.4%518511.81.01×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$16.4325.27 gems$3,6845,667 gems224.3x

Latest dropsnewest first

FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$16.4325.27 gems$2.423.72 gems0.15x
Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet$16.4325.27 gems$21.4432.99 gems1.31x
MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$16.4325.27 gems$3.375.18 gems0.20x
MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil specCJ$16.4325.27 gems$3.375.18 gems0.20x
MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$16.4325.27 gems$3.375.18 gems0.20x
MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$16.4325.27 gems$3.375.18 gems0.20x
FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$16.4325.27 gems$2.423.72 gems0.15x
MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$16.4325.27 gems$3.375.18 gems0.20x
FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$16.4325.27 gems$2.423.72 gems0.15x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$16.4390.00%74
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%other 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 3.2%violet 5.3%restricted 10.7%mil spec 79.9%best hit $3,684 (224.3x)