eSports 2013 Winter Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.16

7.94 gems

Advertised RTP

89.95%

EV $4.64 from 77 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.56%

4,546 openings, odds method

Variance

62.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

65.29%±80.51372 openings

7 days

75.55%±25.843,610 openings

30 days

86.56%±23.034,546 openings

since tracking started

86.56%±23.034,546 openings

-0.5%73.0%146.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	372	65.29%±80.5	−0.6σ	odds
7d	3,610	75.55%±25.8	−1.1σ	odds
30d	4,546	86.56%±23.0	−0.3σ	odds
All	4,546	86.56%±23.0	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,600 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,684 5,667 gems	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,119 4,799 gems	2.7%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,576 2,425 gems	1.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$1,277 1,964 gems	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,169 1,798 gems	1.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	0.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	0.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$943 1,451 gems	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$800 1,230 gems	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$780 1,200 gems	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$770 1,185 gems	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$760 1,169 gems	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$747 1,150 gems	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$735 1,131 gems	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 25,000	$702 1,080 gems	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$614 945 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$611 940 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$568 874 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$567 873 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$541 832 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$487 749 gems	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$483 742 gems	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$458 704 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$456 702 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$442 681 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$442 680 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$413 636 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$394 606 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$388 597 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$358 550 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$354 545 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$351 540 gems	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$300 461 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$284 436 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$270 415 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$228 350 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$223 343 gems	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$212 325 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$211 325 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$211 324 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$210 323 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$209 321 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$201 309 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$194 299 gems	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$182 281 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$155 239 gems	0.1%	2	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$155 238 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$143 220 gems	0.1%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$139 214 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$135 208 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$133 205 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$109 167 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$85.51 132 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| ★ (Vanilla)knife	1 in 25,000	$80.67 124 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$78.01 120 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$75.74 117 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$74.56 115 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$73.63 113 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$66.05 102 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$63.30 97.38 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$62.86 96.7 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$47.02 72.34 gems	10.8%	46	49.0	0.94×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$30.52 46.95 gems	7.0%	32	49.0	0.65×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$27.22 41.88 gems	6.3%	53	49.0	1.08×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$10.13 15.58 gems	1.4%	30	29.4	1.02×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$7.46 11.47 gems	12.8%	353	367.5	0.96×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$6.12 9.41 gems	10.5%	381	367.5	1.04×
Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$1.90 2.93 gems	5.5%	600	612.7	0.98×
P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$1.33 2.04 gems	3.8%	644	612.7	1.05×
G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$1.24 1.91 gems	3.6%	608	612.7	0.99×
PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$1.23 1.89 gems	3.5%	610	612.7	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$1.22 1.87 gems	3.5%	638	612.7	1.04×
Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$1.01 1.55 gems	2.9%	595	612.8	0.97×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertRon***III$5.167.94 gems$3,6845,667 gems713.8x7d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$5.167.94 gems$3,1194,799 gems604.4x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covertRon***III$5.167.94 gems$614945 gems119.0x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covertRon***III$5.167.94 gems$611940 gems118.4x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifesMuF1Cs$5.167.94 gems$487749 gems94.39x2d

★ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knifeeSk;$5.167.94 gems$483742 gems93.50x2d

★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife$5.167.94 gems$429660 gems83.08x4d

★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert$5.167.94 gems$351540 gems68.01x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified$5.167.94 gems$30.5246.95 gems5.91x3m

P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.167.94 gems$1.332.04 gems0.26x3m

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.167.94 gems$1.241.91 gems0.24x3m

Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil speccolin$5.167.94 gems$1.902.93 gems0.37x3m

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.167.94 gems$1.231.89 gems0.24x25m

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.167.94 gems$1.241.91 gems0.24x25m

P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · MythicaleSk;$5.167.94 gems$6.129.41 gems1.19x25m

Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.167.94 gems$1.011.55 gems0.20x30m

G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.167.94 gems$1.241.91 gems0.24x30m

P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.167.94 gems$1.332.04 gems0.26x30m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$5.16	89.95%	77

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%other 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 3.2%Mythical 16.0%mil spec 79.9%best hit $3,684 (713.8x)