eSports 2014 Summer Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.07

13.95 gems

Advertised RTP

89.95%

EV $8.16 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.32%

1,895 openings, odds method

Variance

21.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.22%±70.56166 openings

7 days

90.11%±21.951,716 openings

30 days

89.32%±20.881,895 openings

since tracking started

89.32%±20.881,895 openings

3.0%74.3%145.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	166	74.22%±70.6	−0.4σ	odds
7d	1,716	90.11%±21.9	+0.0σ	odds
30d	1,895	89.32%±20.9	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,895	89.32%±20.9	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,905 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,684 5,667 gems	1.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,119 4,799 gems	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,576 2,425 gems	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$1,277 1,964 gems	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,169 1,798 gems	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$943 1,451 gems	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$800 1,230 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$780 1,200 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambitknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$770 1,185 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$760 1,169 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$747 1,150 gems	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$735 1,131 gems	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 25,000	$702 1,080 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$614 945 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$611 940 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$568 874 gems	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$567 873 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$541 832 gems	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$487 749 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$483 742 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$458 704 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$456 702 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$442 681 gems	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$442 680 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$413 636 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$394 606 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$388 597 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$358 550 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$354 545 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$351 540 gems	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$300 461 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$284 436 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$270 415 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$228 350 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$223 343 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$212 325 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$211 325 gems	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$211 324 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$210 323 gems	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$209 321 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$201 309 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$194 299 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$182 281 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$155 239 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$155 238 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$143 220 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$139 214 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$135 208 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$133 205 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$111 170 gems	4.3%	10	6.1	1.64×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$109 167 gems	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$85.51 132 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$80.67 124 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$78.01 120 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$75.74 117 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$74.56 115 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$73.63 113 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$66.05 102 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$63.30 97.38 gems	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$62.86 96.7 gems	0.0%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$57.94 89.14 gems	22.7%	51	60.9	0.84×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$29.20 44.92 gems	2.9%	20	15.2	1.31×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$26.44 40.67 gems	1.0%	4	6.1	0.66×
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$21.77 33.49 gems	2.1%	16	15.2	1.05×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$17.02 26.18 gems	1.7%	10	15.2	0.66×
MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	13.3%	$13.25 20.39 gems	21.6%	267	253.7	1.05×
P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$11.38 17.5 gems	1.1%	17	15.2	1.12×
Negev \| Bratatat (Factory New)weapon · 1	13.3%	$3.82 5.88 gems	6.2%	242	253.7	0.95×
CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$3.76 5.78 gems	6.1%	255	253.7	1.00×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare	13.3%	$3.74 5.75 gems	6.1%	289	253.7	1.14×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$3.37 5.18 gems	1.3%	66	60.9	1.08×
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$1.78 2.74 gems	0.7%	57	60.9	0.94×
P90 \| Virus (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 31	$1.78 2.74 gems	0.7%	49	60.9	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$1.72 2.64 gems	0.7%	61	60.9	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$1.42 2.18 gems	2.3%	242	253.7	0.95×
XM1014 \| Red Python (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$1.29 1.99 gems	2.1%	243	253.8	0.96×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$9.0713.95 gems$7471,150 gems82.40x6d

★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$9.0713.95 gems$568874 gems62.62x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$9.0713.95 gems$1.422.18 gems0.16x39m

Negev | Bratatat (Factory New)weapon · 1Michael Olise$9.0713.95 gems$3.825.88 gems0.42x39m

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$9.0713.95 gems$1.291.99 gems0.14x53m

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$9.0713.95 gems$13.2520.39 gems1.46x53m

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare$9.0713.95 gems$3.745.75 gems0.41x53m

SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specMichael Olise$9.0713.95 gems$1.422.18 gems0.16x53m

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare$9.0713.95 gems$3.745.75 gems0.41x56m

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$9.0713.95 gems$13.2520.39 gems1.46x56m

CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$9.0713.95 gems$3.765.78 gems0.41x56m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$9.07	89.95%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 13.3%covert 0.8%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%restricted 12.8%classified 3.2%#4b69ff 13.3%mil spec 40.0%Rare 13.3%violet 3.2%best hit $747 (82.40x)