Extra Terrestrial
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.59
5.52 gems
Advertised RTP
89.86%
EV $3.22 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.04%
7,299 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,351 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $48.70 74.92 gems | 30.2% | 128 | 147.0 | 0.87× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $12.96 19.94 gems | 12.1% | 219 | 220.5 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $7.87 12.1 gems | 12.2% | 414 | 367.5 | 1.13× |
| Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $3.37 5.19 gems | 10.5% | 739 | 735.1 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff | 15.0% | $2.61 4.02 gems | 12.2% | 1,107 | 1102.6 | 1.00× |
| MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 15.0% | $2.41 3.71 gems | 11.2% | 1,138 | 1102.6 | 1.03× |
| P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 50.0% | $0.75 1.16 gems | 11.7% | 3,606 | 3675.5 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.59 | 89.86% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 5.0%restricted 65.0%#8847ff 15.0%#d32ee6 15.0%best hit —