Flex Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$815.54
1,255 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $733.98 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
52.85%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 50 | $7,761 11,939 gems | 21.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 50 | $7,003 10,774 gems | 19.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 17 | $858 1,319 gems | 7.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 10.0% | $691 1,063 gems | 9.4% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 14.0% | $570 877 gems | 10.9% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 22.0% | $443 681 gems | 13.3% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 22.0% | $437 673 gems | 13.1% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 22.0% | $204 313 gems | 6.1% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $816 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 2.0%sunny 54.0%#ffd700 22.0%covert 22.0%best hit $858 (1.05x)