Forbidden Riches
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$78.50
121 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $70.65 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.85%
279 openings, odds method
Variance
8.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 279 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Packagecontainer · 6FarelEnergy skinbet.gg$78.50121 gems$31.4548.39 gems0.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $78.50 | 89.99% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed6 90.0%covert 5.5%legendary 0.5%extraordinary 2.0%restricted 2.0%best hit $2,742 (34.93x)