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Fracture Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1.46
2.25 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $1.32 from 68 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.98%
28.3K openings, odds method
Variance
187.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 513
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
83.62%±52.292,627 openings
7 days
116.47%±16.7525.6K openings
30 days
114.98%±15.9428.3K openings
since tracking started
114.98%±15.9428.3K openings
30.5%83.5%136.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.97% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (99.05% – 130.92%, 28,270 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,62783.62%±52.3−0.2σodds
7d25.6K116.47%±16.7+3.1σodds
30d28.3K114.98%±15.9+3.1σodds
All28.3K114.98%±15.9+3.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$1,559 2,399 gems5.9%51.43.49×
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$934 1,436 gems3.5%31.42.09×
★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$891 1,370 gems3.4%11.40.70×
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$806 1,240 gems3.1%31.42.09×
★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$560 862 gems2.1%11.40.70×
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$546 841 gems2.1%31.42.09×
★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$534 821 gems2.0%01.40.00×
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$499 768 gems1.9%11.40.70×
★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$427 657 gems1.6%11.40.70×
★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$422 649 gems1.6%11.40.70×
★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$383 589 gems1.5%41.42.79×
★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$372 573 gems1.4%21.41.39×
★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$335 516 gems1.3%31.42.09×
★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$305 470 gems1.2%01.40.00×
★ Skeleton Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$282 435 gems1.1%31.42.09×
★ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$274 421 gems1.0%21.41.39×
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$272 418 gems1.0%61.44.18×
★ Nomad Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$260 400 gems1.0%21.41.39×
★ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$245 378 gems0.9%21.41.39×
★ Skeleton Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$237 365 gems0.9%01.40.00×
★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$232 356 gems0.9%01.40.00×
★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$223 344 gems0.8%11.40.70×
★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$216 332 gems0.8%11.40.70×
★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 20,000$195 300 gems0.7%41.42.79×
★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20,000$190 292 gems0.7%01.40.00×
★ Skeleton Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$188 289 gems0.7%21.41.39×
★ Paracord Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$183 282 gems0.7%11.40.70×
★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$182 281 gems0.7%21.41.39×
★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$162 250 gems0.6%11.40.70×
★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$160 246 gems0.6%01.40.00×
★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$146 225 gems0.6%11.40.70×
★ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$144 222 gems0.5%21.41.39×
★ Nomad Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$144 222 gems0.5%01.40.00×
★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 20,000$136 208 gems0.5%21.41.39×
★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$132 204 gems0.5%01.40.00×
★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$132 204 gems0.5%31.42.09×
★ Paracord Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$123 189 gems0.5%01.40.00×
★ Paracord Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$122 187 gems0.5%41.42.79×
★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$118 182 gems0.5%41.42.79×
★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$117 180 gems0.4%21.41.39×
★ Paracord Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$107 164 gems0.4%11.40.70×
★ Survival Knifeknife · Immortal1 in 20,000$106 163 gems0.4%01.40.00×
★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$106 163 gems0.4%31.42.09×
★ Paracord Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$105 161 gems0.4%21.41.39×
★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$103 158 gems0.4%11.40.70×
★ Paracord Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$100 154 gems0.4%01.40.00×
★ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20,000$97.19 150 gems0.4%11.40.70×
★ Survival Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$93.55 144 gems0.4%31.42.09×
★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20,000$91.76 141 gems0.3%21.41.39×
★ Survival Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$91.16 140 gems0.3%11.40.70×
★ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$85.32 131 gems0.3%11.40.70×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$55.24 84.99 gems13.4%9891.81.07×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 313$8.35 12.84 gems2.0%9191.80.99×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 94$4.96 7.63 gems4.0%295305.80.96×
XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 94$4.62 7.1 gems3.7%280305.80.92×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 94$4.55 7 gems3.7%332305.81.09×
Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 31$0.98 1.51 gems2.4%907916.90.99×
MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 31$0.88 1.35 gems2.1%948916.91.03×
Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 31$0.86 1.33 gems2.1%891916.90.97×
MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)weapon · Restricted1 in 31$0.84 1.29 gems2.0%882916.90.96×
MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 31$0.70 1.08 gems1.7%962916.91.05×
P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff11.4%$0.14 0.22 gems1.2%3,2213275.40.98×
P90 | Freight (Factory New)weapon · Rare11.4%$0.14 0.22 gems1.2%3,3303275.41.02×
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)weapon · milspec11.4%$0.14 0.21 gems1.2%3,2713275.41.00×
PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff11.4%$0.12 0.19 gems1.1%3,3173275.41.01×
Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)weapon · 111.4%$0.12 0.18 gems1.0%3,3623275.41.03×
P250 | Cassette (Factory New)weapon · blue11.4%$0.12 0.18 gems1.0%3,2183275.40.98×
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff11.4%$0.11 0.17 gems1.0%3,1963277.70.98×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$1.462.25 gems$1,5592,399 gems1,066x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$1.462.25 gems$1,5592,399 gems1,066x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$1.462.25 gems$1,5592,399 gems1,066x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$1.462.25 gems$1,5592,399 gems1,066x
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$1.462.25 gems$1,5592,399 gems1,066x
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal$1.462.25 gems$9341,436 gems638.3x
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal$1.462.25 gems$9341,436 gems638.3x
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal$1.462.25 gems$9341,436 gems638.3x
★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendaryStoepsel123$1.462.25 gems$8911,370 gems609.0x
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryDicE$1.462.25 gems$8061,240 gems550.9x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$1.462.25 gems$0.861.33 gems0.59x
P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$1.462.25 gems$0.140.22 gems0.10x
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$1.462.25 gems$0.110.17 gems0.08x
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendaryamarilo$1.462.25 gems$4.557 gems3.11x
P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$1.462.25 gems$0.140.22 gems0.10x
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)weapon · milspec$1.462.25 gems$0.140.21 gems0.09x
Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)weapon · 1$1.462.25 gems$0.120.18 gems0.08x
Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)weapon · 1amarilo$1.462.25 gems$0.120.18 gems0.08x
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)weapon · milspecRΞA***ΞЯI$1.462.25 gems$0.140.21 gems0.09x
Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)weapon · violet$1.462.25 gems$0.981.51 gems0.67x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$1.4689.97%68
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 11.4%legendary 0.0%Immortal 0.0%epic 0.0%gold 0.0%covert 0.4%Covert 0.0%covert knife 0.1%knifes 0.0%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.3%Legendary 3.2%violet 3.2%Mythical 6.4%#8847ff 3.2%Restricted 3.2%#4b69ff 34.3%Rare 11.4%milspec 11.4%blue 11.4%best hit $1,559 (1,066x)