Golden Reign
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.92
58.34 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $34.13 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.66%
920 openings, odds method
Variance
18.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 936 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,605 2,469 gems | 23.5% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× |
| AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,284 1,976 gems | 18.8% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $998 1,535 gems | 14.6% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.07× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $330 508 gems | 4.8% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.28× |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $213 328 gems | 6.2% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $79.94 123 gems | 2.3% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.07× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $56.85 87.46 gems | 1.7% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.75× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $38.54 59.29 gems | 11.3% | 88 | 93.6 | 0.94× |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $13.18 20.27 gems | 9.7% | 250 | 234.0 | 1.07× |
| Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)weapon · violet | 60.0% | $3.99 6.14 gems | 7.0% | 555 | 561.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertThomas the termonuclear bomb$37.9258.34 gems$1,2841,976 gems33.86x
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$37.9258.34 gems$13.1820.27 gems0.35x
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedPejchyn$37.9258.34 gems$13.1820.27 gems0.35x
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$37.9258.34 gems$13.1820.27 gems0.35x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $37.92 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%extraordinary 10.0%classified 25.0%violet 60.0%best hit $1,605 (42.32x)