Heartbeat Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,866.01
2,871 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,679.41 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.71%
33 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 33 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 20 | $9,855 15,162 gems | 29.3% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.82× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 20 | $9,315 14,331 gems | 27.7% | 6 | 1.6 | 3.64× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 20 | $7,287 11,212 gems | 21.7% | 6 | 1.6 | 3.64× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 15.0% | $2,377 3,657 gems | 21.2% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.21× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.0% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.0% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 10 | 9.9 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldBOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$1,8662,871 gems$9,85515,162 gems5.28x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldPalm Beach Pete$1,8662,871 gems$9,85515,162 gems5.28x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldPalm Beach Pete$1,8662,871 gems$9,85515,162 gems5.28x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,866 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 5.0%sunny 25.0%milspec 20.0%consumer 50.0%best hit $9,855 (5.28x)