Jingle Blades
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$361.45
556 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $325.30 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.83%
240 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 100 | $7,443 11,450 gems | 22.9% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 100 | $5,741 8,832 gems | 17.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby | 1 in 50 | $2,203 3,390 gems | 13.5% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
| ★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,394 2,145 gems | 8.6% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,008 1,550 gems | 6.2% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.46× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Vanillaknife | 1 in 50 | $577 887 gems | 3.5% | 10 | 4.8 | 2.08× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 10.0% | $387 595 gems | 11.9% | 20 | 24.0 | 0.83× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 15.0% | $166 255 gems | 7.6% | 32 | 36.0 | 0.89× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Vanillaknife | 15.0% | $68.42 105 gems | 3.2% | 27 | 36.0 | 0.75× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 50.0% | $32.02 49.26 gems | 4.9% | 130 | 120.0 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldSieras$361556 gems$7,44311,450 gems20.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$361556 gems$7,44311,450 gems20.59x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$361556 gems$7,44311,450 gems20.59x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$361556 gems$5,7418,832 gems15.88x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$361556 gems$2,2033,390 gems6.10x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$361556 gems$2,2033,390 gems6.10x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$361556 gems$2,2033,390 gems6.10x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$361556 gems$2,2033,390 gems6.10x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$361556 gems$2,2033,390 gems6.10x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$361556 gems$387595 gems1.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $361 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 31.0%legendary 2.0%other 17.0%gold 50.0%best hit $7,443 (20.59x)