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Kill Contract

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$45.64
70.21 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $41.07 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.40%
903 openings, odds method
Variance
16.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
132 openings · below min
7 days
77.73%±31.43636 openings
30 days
75.40%±26.38903 openings
since tracking started
75.40%±26.38903 openings
-0.5%67.5%135.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h13265.88%±69.0—odds
7d63677.73%±31.4−0.8σodds
30d90375.40%±26.4−1.1σodds
All90375.40%±26.4−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 918 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 500$2,989 4,599 gems14.6%11.80.54×
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 333$1,656 2,548 gems12.1%22.80.73×
ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · Souvenir1 in 200$1,071 1,647 gems13.0%64.61.31×
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$320 492 gems7.8%109.21.09×
MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 100$256 394 gems6.2%119.21.20×
SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$198 304 gems14.4%2527.50.91×
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 33$142 218 gems10.3%2027.50.73×
Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$77.39 119 gems9.4%4645.91.00×
FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 20$53.77 82.72 gems6.5%3845.90.83×
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified10.0%$13.57 20.88 gems3.3%9491.81.02×
PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare11.0%$6.40 9.84 gems1.7%128101.01.27×
Sticker | The Ninjasticker · Rare60.0%$0.36 0.56 gems0.5%537550.80.97×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryHAKAO$45.6470.21 gems$2,9894,599 gems65.50x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$45.6470.21 gems$1,6562,548 gems36.29x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertxCrowny$45.6470.21 gems$1,6562,548 gems36.29x
ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · Souvenir$45.6470.21 gems$1,0711,647 gems23.46x
ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · Souvenir$45.6470.21 gems$1,0711,647 gems23.46x
ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · Souvenir$45.6470.21 gems$1,0711,647 gems23.46x
ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · Souvenir$45.6470.21 gems$1,0711,647 gems23.46x
ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · SouvenirjmL$45.6470.21 gems$1,0711,647 gems23.46x
ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · Souvenir$45.6470.21 gems$1,0711,647 gems23.46x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | The Ninjasticker · Rare$45.6470.21 gems$0.360.56 gems0.01x
PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare$45.6470.21 gems$6.409.84 gems0.14x
Sticker | The Ninjasticker · Rare$45.6470.21 gems$0.360.56 gems0.01x
Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$45.6470.21 gems$77.39119 gems1.70x
PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare$45.6470.21 gems$6.409.84 gems0.14x
Sticker | The Ninjasticker · Rareduccster$45.6470.21 gems$0.360.56 gems0.01x
Sticker | The Ninjasticker · Rare$45.6470.21 gems$0.360.56 gems0.01x
Sticker | The Ninjasticker · Rare$45.6470.21 gems$0.360.56 gems0.01x
Sticker | The Ninjasticker · Rare$45.6470.21 gems$0.360.56 gems0.01x
FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet$45.6470.21 gems$53.7782.72 gems1.18x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$45.6490.00%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.2%covert 1.3%Souvenir 0.5%#d32ee6 1.0%restricted 6.0%mil spec 5.0%violet 5.0%Classified 10.0%Rare 71.0%best hit $2,989 (65.50x)