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Lord of War

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$133.87
206 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $120.49 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.74%
179 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
88.33%±27.61145 openings
30 days
94.74%±24.85179 openings
since tracking started
94.74%±24.85179 openings
60.0%90.0%120.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d14588.33%±27.6−0.1σodds
30d17994.74%±24.8+0.4σodds
All17994.74%±24.8+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 179 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 40$1,165 1,793 gems24.2%34.50.67×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 40$924 1,422 gems19.2%84.51.79×
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified15.0%$219 337 gems27.3%2726.81.01×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert10.0%$165 254 gems13.7%1417.90.78×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert10.0%$65.76 101 gems5.5%2417.91.34×
MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec10.0%$41.54 63.91 gems3.4%1817.91.01×
StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert10.0%$40.16 61.79 gems3.3%1317.90.73×
MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted10.0%$22.81 35.09 gems1.9%1817.91.01×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted15.0%$7.58 11.66 gems0.9%2626.80.97×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted15.0%$4.38 6.74 gems0.5%2826.91.04×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert$134206 gems$1,1651,793 gems8.70x
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covertArmands Miesnieks$134206 gems$1,1651,793 gems8.70x
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert$134206 gems$1,1651,793 gems8.70x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$134206 gems$9241,422 gems6.90x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$134206 gems$9241,422 gems6.90x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$134206 gems$9241,422 gems6.90x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertEnergetic Ferret$134206 gems$9241,422 gems6.90x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertVixxy$134206 gems$9241,422 gems6.90x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$134206 gems$9241,422 gems6.90x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$134206 gems$9241,422 gems6.90x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$134206 gems$65.76101 gems0.49x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$134206 gems$65.76101 gems0.49x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$134206 gems$65.76101 gems0.49x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$134206 gems$165254 gems1.23x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$134206 gems$4.386.74 gems0.03x
MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil specDingus$134206 gems$41.5463.91 gems0.31x
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified$134206 gems$219337 gems1.64x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$134206 gems$4.386.74 gems0.03x
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified$134206 gems$219337 gems1.64x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$134206 gems$165254 gems1.23x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$13490.00%10
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 35.0%classified 15.0%mil spec 10.0%restricted 40.0%best hit $1,165 (8.70x)