Operation Bravo Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$22.03
33.89 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $19.82 from 80 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.99%
1,296 openings, odds method
Variance
15.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
59.08%±52.93210 openings
7 days
103.80%±23.221,091 openings
30 days
102.99%±21.311,296 openings
since tracking started
102.99%±21.311,296 openings
5.5%66.5%127.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h21059.08%±52.9−1.1σodds
7d1,091103.80%±23.2+1.2σodds
30d1,296102.99%±21.3+1.2σodds
All1,296102.99%±21.3+1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values80 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,296 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,684 5,667 gems0.7%00.1—
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,119 4,799 gems0.6%00.1—
★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,576 2,425 gems0.3%00.1—
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$1,316 2,024 gems21.2%54.11.21×
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$1,277 1,964 gems0.3%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,169 1,798 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$943 1,451 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$800 1,230 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$780 1,200 gems0.2%10.1—
★ Karambitknife · covert1 in 25,000$770 1,185 gems0.2%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert1 in 25,000$760 1,169 gems0.2%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$747 1,150 gems0.2%00.1—
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$735 1,131 gems0.1%10.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 25,000$702 1,080 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$614 945 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$611 940 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$568 874 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$567 873 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$541 832 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$487 749 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$483 742 gems0.1%10.1—
★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$458 704 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$456 702 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$442 681 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$442 680 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$413 636 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$394 606 gems0.1%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$388 597 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$358 550 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$354 545 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$351 540 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$300 461 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Bayonetknife · covert1 in 25,000$284 436 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$270 415 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.1%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.1%10.1—
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$228 350 gems0.0%20.1—
★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$223 343 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$212 325 gems0.0%10.1—
★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$211 325 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$211 324 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$210 323 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$209 321 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$201 309 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$194 299 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$182 281 gems0.0%00.1—
P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$182 280 gems9.8%2113.81.52×
★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$155 239 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$155 238 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$143 220 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$139 214 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$135 208 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$133 205 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$109 167 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$85.51 132 gems0.0%10.1—
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$80.67 124 gems0.0%00.1—
AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$80.47 124 gems4.3%1613.81.16×
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$79.29 122 gems4.3%1713.81.23×
★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$78.01 120 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$75.74 117 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$74.56 115 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$73.63 113 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$66.05 102 gems0.0%00.1—
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$63.30 97.38 gems0.0%10.1—
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$62.86 96.7 gems0.0%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$61.61 94.78 gems1.0%54.11.21×
USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$30.05 46.23 gems6.1%3451.80.66×
M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$21.29 32.76 gems4.3%5851.81.12×
MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$20.24 31.14 gems4.1%4651.80.89×
M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25$14.46 22.24 gems2.9%5851.81.12×
Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue13.3%$11.80 18.16 gems7.9%168172.60.97×
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue13.3%$9.63 14.82 gems6.5%155172.60.90×
SG 553 | Wave Spray (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff13.3%$9.09 13.98 gems6.1%194172.61.12×
G3SG1 | Demeter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec13.3%$7.57 11.65 gems5.1%166172.60.96×
Nova | Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue13.3%$7.55 11.62 gems5.1%170172.60.98×
UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil spec13.3%$7.02 10.8 gems4.7%174172.71.01×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$22.0333.89 gems$1,3162,024 gems59.72x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertHoly$22.0333.89 gems$1,3162,024 gems59.72x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$22.0333.89 gems$1,3162,024 gems59.72x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$22.0333.89 gems$1,3162,024 gems59.72x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert$22.0333.89 gems$1,3162,024 gems59.72x
★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert$22.0333.89 gems$7801,200 gems35.41x
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$22.0333.89 gems$7351,131 gems33.36x

Latest dropsnewest first

Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue$22.0333.89 gems$11.8018.16 gems0.54x
G3SG1 | Demeter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$22.0333.89 gems$7.5711.65 gems0.34x
UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$22.0333.89 gems$7.0210.8 gems0.32x
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue$22.0333.89 gems$9.6314.82 gems0.44x
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue$22.0333.89 gems$9.6314.82 gems0.44x
Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New)weapon · bluezyro$22.0333.89 gems$11.8018.16 gems0.54x
Nova | Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue$22.0333.89 gems$7.5511.62 gems0.34x
Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue$22.0333.89 gems$11.8018.16 gems0.54x
UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$22.0333.89 gems$7.0210.8 gems0.32x
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue$22.0333.89 gems$9.6314.82 gems0.44x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$22.0389.99%80
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 16.0%blue 40.0%#4b69ff 13.3%mil spec 26.6%best hit $1,316 (59.72x)