gambatracker
Live
Big wins
5 Lions Megaways 2$5,48653.32xVideo Poker$2,4003.00xBig Bass Vegas Double Down Deluxe$784228.5xStarlight Princess 1000$4,4373.53xLightning Roulette$1,1898.76xLightning Roulette$1,2502.00xBig Bass Halloween Splash 1000$93.06139.4xLightning Roulette$2,8491.19xSlayers Inc$229278.1xSweet Bonanza 1000$7,0751.41xBlackjack$2,0002.00xRoo Bonanza$110K2.97xMines$1,4767.85xThe Dog House$121303.7xChests of Cai Shen - Infinity$4,65562.00xBlackjack$1,2502.50xGates of Olympus 2500$2,2412.01xVideo Poker$2,4003.00xLotus Sic Bo$6,0062.00xSweet Bonanza 2500$2,08134.69xKeno$151270.0xGates of Olympus Super Scatter$271198.5xBlackjack$2,0002.00xCrash$21.3K2.13x

Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.83
5.89 gems
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $3.44 from 78 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.84%
10.8K openings, odds method
Variance
116.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 61
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
63.12%±40.872,679 openings
7 days
87.43%±21.989,262 openings
30 days
84.84%±20.3110.8K openings
since tracking started
84.84%±20.3110.8K openings
21.5%65.8%110.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,67963.12%±40.9−1.3σodds
7d9,26287.43%±22.0−0.2σodds
30d10.8K84.84%±20.3−0.5σodds
All10.8K84.84%±20.3−0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,684 5,667 gems4.3%00.4—
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,119 4,799 gems3.6%10.4—
★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,576 2,425 gems1.8%00.4—
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$1,277 1,964 gems1.5%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,169 1,798 gems1.4%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems1.2%20.4—
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems1.2%00.4—
★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$943 1,451 gems1.1%00.4—
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$800 1,230 gems0.9%10.4—
★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$780 1,200 gems0.9%00.4—
★ Karambitknife · covert1 in 25,000$770 1,185 gems0.9%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert1 in 25,000$760 1,169 gems0.9%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$747 1,150 gems0.9%10.4—
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$735 1,131 gems0.9%10.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 25,000$702 1,080 gems0.8%10.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$614 945 gems0.7%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$611 940 gems0.7%10.4—
★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$568 874 gems0.7%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$567 873 gems0.7%00.4—
★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$541 832 gems0.6%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$487 749 gems0.6%10.4—
★ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$483 742 gems0.6%00.4—
★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$458 704 gems0.5%00.4—
★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$456 702 gems0.5%30.4—
★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$442 681 gems0.5%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$442 680 gems0.5%00.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.5%00.4—
★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.5%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$413 636 gems0.5%10.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$394 606 gems0.5%10.4—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$388 597 gems0.5%00.4—
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$358 550 gems0.4%00.4—
★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$354 545 gems0.4%10.4—
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$351 540 gems0.4%00.4—
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$300 461 gems0.3%00.4—
★ Bayonetknife · covert1 in 25,000$284 436 gems0.3%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$270 415 gems0.3%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.3%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.3%00.4—
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$228 350 gems0.3%00.4—
★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$223 343 gems0.3%00.4—
★ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$212 325 gems0.2%20.4—
★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$211 325 gems0.2%00.4—
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$211 324 gems0.2%10.4—
★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$210 323 gems0.2%00.4—
★ Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$209 321 gems0.2%00.4—
★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$201 309 gems0.2%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$194 299 gems0.2%10.4—
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$182 281 gems0.2%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$155 239 gems0.2%10.4—
★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$155 238 gems0.2%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$143 220 gems0.2%10.4—
★ Flip Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$139 214 gems0.2%00.4—
★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$135 208 gems0.2%00.4—
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$133 205 gems0.2%20.4—
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$109 167 gems0.1%00.4—
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$85.51 132 gems0.1%10.4—
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$80.67 124 gems0.1%00.4—
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 313$79.49 122 gems7.4%2435.30.68×
★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$78.01 120 gems0.1%00.4—
★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$75.74 117 gems0.1%10.4—
★ Gut Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$74.56 115 gems0.1%10.4—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$73.63 113 gems0.1%00.4—
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 94$70.65 109 gems21.9%117117.80.99×
★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$66.05 102 gems0.1%10.4—
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$63.30 97.38 gems0.1%00.4—
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$62.86 96.7 gems0.1%00.4—
Nova | Antique (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$7.35 11.31 gems2.3%115117.80.98×
P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 94$5.84 8.98 gems1.8%113117.80.96×
MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$4.26 6.55 gems4.9%463441.31.05×
USP-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 25$3.84 5.9 gems4.5%446441.31.01×
FAMAS | Sergeant (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25$3.25 5 gems3.8%467441.31.06×
SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25$3.16 4.86 gems3.7%428441.30.97×
AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$2.24 3.45 gems0.2%3535.30.99×
Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec20.0%$0.74 1.14 gems4.3%2,1662207.00.98×
UMP-45 | Corporal (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec20.0%$0.45 0.7 gems2.6%2,1462207.00.97×
MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec20.0%$0.38 0.58 gems2.2%2,2162207.01.00×
Negev | Terrain (Factory New)weapon · mil spec20.0%$0.36 0.56 gems2.1%2,2832207.21.03×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$3.835.89 gems$3,1194,799 gems814.8x
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$3.835.89 gems$1,0491,614 gems274.1x
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertDontMakeMeCook$3.835.89 gems$1,0491,614 gems274.1x
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$3.835.89 gems$8001,230 gems208.8x
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$3.835.89 gems$7471,150 gems195.2x
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covertdookerdock$3.835.89 gems$7351,131 gems191.9x
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal$3.835.89 gems$7021,080 gems183.3x
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$3.835.89 gems$611940 gems159.6x
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes$3.835.89 gems$487749 gems127.2x
★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert$3.835.89 gems$456702 gems119.2x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
USP-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$3.835.89 gems$3.845.9 gems1.00x
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$3.835.89 gems$70.65109 gems18.45x
UMP-45 | Corporal (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec$3.835.89 gems$0.450.7 gems0.12x
UMP-45 | Corporal (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec$3.835.89 gems$0.450.7 gems0.12x
Negev | Terrain (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.835.89 gems$0.360.56 gems0.10x
Negev | Terrain (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.835.89 gems$0.360.56 gems0.10x
USP-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$3.835.89 gems$3.845.9 gems1.00x
Negev | Terrain (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.835.89 gems$0.360.56 gems0.10x
USP-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$3.835.89 gems$3.845.9 gems1.00x
P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$3.835.89 gems$5.848.98 gems1.52x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$3.8389.91%78
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 2.1%Legendary 1.1%restricted 12.0%Mythical 4.0%mil spec 59.9%Mil Spec 20.0%best hit $3,119 (814.8x)