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Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.58
5.51 gems
Advertised RTP
89.92%
EV $3.22 from 79 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.97%
6,102 openings, odds method
Variance
131.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 185
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
537 openings · below min
7 days
77.30%±31.125,203 openings
30 days
75.97%±28.746,102 openings
since tracking started
75.97%±28.746,102 openings
-0.5%86.8%174.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h53776.49%±96.9—odds
7d5,20377.30%±31.1−0.8σodds
30d6,10275.97%±28.7−1.0σodds
All6,10275.97%±28.7−1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values79 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,136 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,684 5,667 gems4.6%00.2—
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,119 4,799 gems3.9%00.2—
★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,576 2,425 gems2.0%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$1,277 1,964 gems1.6%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,169 1,798 gems1.5%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems1.3%00.2—
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems1.3%00.2—
★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$943 1,451 gems1.2%00.2—
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$800 1,230 gems1.0%00.2—
★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$780 1,200 gems1.0%00.2—
★ Karambitknife · covert1 in 25,000$770 1,185 gems1.0%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert1 in 25,000$760 1,169 gems0.9%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$747 1,150 gems0.9%00.2—
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$735 1,131 gems0.9%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 25,000$702 1,080 gems0.9%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$614 945 gems0.8%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$611 940 gems0.8%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$568 874 gems0.7%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$567 873 gems0.7%00.2—
★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$541 832 gems0.7%10.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$487 749 gems0.6%00.2—
★ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$483 742 gems0.6%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$458 704 gems0.6%00.2—
★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$456 702 gems0.6%00.2—
★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$442 681 gems0.5%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$442 680 gems0.5%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.5%20.2—
★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.5%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$413 636 gems0.5%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$394 606 gems0.5%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$388 597 gems0.5%10.2—
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$358 550 gems0.4%20.2—
★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$354 545 gems0.4%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$351 540 gems0.4%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$300 461 gems0.4%00.2—
★ Bayonetknife · covert1 in 25,000$284 436 gems0.4%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$270 415 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$228 350 gems0.3%20.2—
★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$223 343 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$212 325 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$211 325 gems0.3%10.2—
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$211 324 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$210 323 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$209 321 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$201 309 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$194 299 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$182 281 gems0.2%10.2—
★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$155 239 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$155 238 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$143 220 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$139 214 gems0.2%10.2—
★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$135 208 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$133 205 gems0.2%00.2—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$118 182 gems11.8%3419.61.73×
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$109 167 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$85.51 132 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$80.67 124 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$78.01 120 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$75.74 117 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$74.56 115 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$73.63 113 gems0.1%10.2—
★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$66.05 102 gems0.1%10.2—
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$63.30 97.38 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$62.86 96.7 gems0.1%10.2—
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$12.56 19.32 gems1.2%1119.60.56×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$10.19 15.68 gems3.4%5565.40.84×
P250 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$7.46 11.48 gems2.5%6965.41.05×
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$6.96 10.7 gems2.3%5165.40.78×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$6.18 9.51 gems7.7%231245.10.94×
M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$2.60 4 gems3.2%222245.10.91×
MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade16.0%$2.23 3.43 gems11.1%978980.81.00×
Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$1.75 2.69 gems2.2%233245.10.95×
Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 25$1.11 1.7 gems1.4%244245.11.00×
UMP-45 | Delusion (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec16.0%$0.98 1.5 gems4.8%1,009980.81.03×
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec16.0%$0.79 1.22 gems3.9%1,032980.81.05×
MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec16.0%$0.37 0.57 gems1.8%951980.80.97×
G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New)weapon · mil spec16.0%$0.34 0.53 gems1.7%1,002980.91.02×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife$3.585.51 gems$541832 gems151.0x
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert喇嘛$3.585.51 gems$429660 gems119.7x
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert$3.585.51 gems$429660 gems119.7x
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes$3.585.51 gems$388597 gems108.4x
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$3.585.51 gems$358550 gems99.82x
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertVortex$3.585.51 gems$358550 gems99.82x
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covertparis0743$3.585.51 gems$228350 gems63.52x
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covertcertified boogeyman$3.585.51 gems$228350 gems63.52x
★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifesBomba$3.585.51 gems$211325 gems58.98x
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife$3.585.51 gems$182281 gems50.93x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.585.51 gems$0.340.53 gems0.10x
G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.585.51 gems$0.340.53 gems0.10x
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil specByRcHyZ$3.585.51 gems$0.791.22 gems0.22x
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.585.51 gems$0.791.22 gems0.22x
G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.585.51 gems$0.340.53 gems0.10x
G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New)weapon · mil specByRcHyZ$3.585.51 gems$0.340.53 gems0.10x
G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.585.51 gems$0.340.53 gems0.10x
G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.585.51 gems$0.340.53 gems0.10x
MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil specWinksy89$3.585.51 gems$0.370.57 gems0.10x
MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.585.51 gems$0.370.57 gems0.10x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$3.5889.92%79
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 12.0%Mil Spec Grade 16.0%Mythical 4.0%Mil Spec 16.0%mil spec 48.0%best hit $541 (151.0x)