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Pearly Gates

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$85.93
132 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $77.33 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.67%
2,044 openings, odds method
Variance
34.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 105
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
155 openings · below min
7 days
82.13%±29.181,539 openings
30 days
79.67%±25.322,044 openings
since tracking started
79.67%±25.322,044 openings
-0.5%76.0%152.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h15559.66%±91.9—odds
7d1,53982.13%±29.2−0.5σodds
30d2,04479.67%±25.3−0.8σodds
All2,04479.67%±25.3−0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,130 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 1,000$10.1K 15,493 gems13.0%22.10.94×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 1,000$8,124 12,498 gems10.5%22.10.94×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 400$3,651 5,616 gems11.8%75.31.31×
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 200$2,397 3,688 gems15.5%1310.71.22×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 100$1,296 1,993 gems16.8%821.30.38×
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 67$695 1,070 gems13.5%3131.90.97×
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 65$518 797 gems10.4%3833.01.15×
Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial10.0%$42.26 65.01 gems5.5%221213.01.04×
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial15.0%$9.72 14.96 gems1.9%306319.50.96×
P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified20.0%$4.19 6.45 gems1.1%448426.01.05×
M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Factory New)weapon · Rare20.0%$0.29 0.45 gems0.1%452426.01.06×
UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial30.0%$0.08 0.13 gems0.0%602639.00.94×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$85.93132 gems$10.1K15,493 gems117.2x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$85.93132 gems$10.1K15,493 gems117.2x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlKick / injee #COMEBACK$85.93132 gems$8,12412,498 gems94.54x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$85.93132 gems$8,12412,498 gems94.54x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$85.93132 gems$3,6515,616 gems42.48x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$85.93132 gems$3,6515,616 gems42.48x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlxSketchy$85.93132 gems$3,6515,616 gems42.48x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$85.93132 gems$3,6515,616 gems42.48x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$85.93132 gems$3,6515,616 gems42.48x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$85.93132 gems$3,6515,616 gems42.48x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial$85.93132 gems$42.2665.01 gems0.49x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$85.93132 gems$6951,070 gems8.09x
P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$85.93132 gems$4.196.45 gems0.05x
P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$85.93132 gems$4.196.45 gems0.05x
M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Factory New)weapon · Rare$85.93132 gems$0.290.45 gems0.00x
M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Factory New)weapon · Rare☦︎Theta$85.93132 gems$0.290.45 gems0.00x
UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial$85.93132 gems$0.080.13 gems0.00x
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$85.93132 gems$9.7214.96 gems0.11x
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$85.93132 gems$9.7214.96 gems0.11x
M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Factory New)weapon · Rare$85.93132 gems$0.290.45 gems0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$85.9389.99%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.0%industrial 55.0%classified 20.0%Rare 20.0%best hit $10.1K (117.2x)