Pro Loadout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$268.22
413 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $241.40 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.40%
129 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 153 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $4,628 7,120 gems | 19.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $3,152 4,849 gems | 13.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 25 | $872 1,342 gems | 14.5% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $833 1,282 gems | 27.6% | 17 | 12.2 | 1.39× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $380 584 gems | 12.6% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $146 224 gems | 6.0% | 21 | 15.3 | 1.37× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 24.0% | $44.17 67.95 gems | 4.4% | 40 | 36.7 | 1.09× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 44.0% | $14.67 22.57 gems | 2.7% | 61 | 67.3 | 0.91× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$268413 gems$4,6287,120 gems17.25x
AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$268413 gems$3,1524,849 gems11.75x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$268413 gems$44.1767.95 gems0.16x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$268413 gems$44.1767.95 gems0.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $268 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%covert 87.0%#ffd700 4.0%restricted 8.0%best hit $4,628 (17.25x)