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Revolver Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$2.97
4.57 gems
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $2.67 from 82 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.42%
5,745 openings, odds method
Variance
186.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 172
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
48.95%±85.24988 openings
7 days
62.72%±37.505,106 openings
30 days
62.42%±35.355,745 openings
since tracking started
62.42%±35.355,745 openings
-0.5%67.3%135.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h98848.95%±85.2−0.9σodds
7d5,10662.72%±37.5−1.4σodds
30d5,74562.42%±35.4−1.5σodds
All5,74562.42%±35.4−1.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,777 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,684 5,667 gems5.5%00.2—
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$3,119 4,799 gems4.7%00.2—
★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,576 2,425 gems2.4%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$1,277 1,964 gems1.9%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,169 1,798 gems1.8%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems1.6%00.2—
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$1,049 1,614 gems1.6%00.2—
★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$943 1,451 gems1.4%00.2—
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$800 1,230 gems1.2%00.2—
★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$780 1,200 gems1.2%00.2—
★ Karambitknife · covert1 in 25,000$770 1,185 gems1.2%10.2—
★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert1 in 25,000$760 1,169 gems1.1%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$747 1,150 gems1.1%00.2—
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$735 1,131 gems1.1%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 25,000$702 1,080 gems1.1%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$614 945 gems0.9%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$611 940 gems0.9%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$568 874 gems0.9%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$567 873 gems0.8%00.2—
★ Karambit | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$541 832 gems0.8%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$487 749 gems0.7%00.2—
★ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$483 742 gems0.7%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$458 704 gems0.7%00.2—
★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$456 702 gems0.7%00.2—
★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$442 681 gems0.7%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$442 680 gems0.7%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.6%00.2—
★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$429 660 gems0.6%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$413 636 gems0.6%10.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$394 606 gems0.6%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$388 597 gems0.6%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$358 550 gems0.5%10.2—
★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$354 545 gems0.5%10.2—
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$351 540 gems0.5%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$300 461 gems0.4%00.2—
★ Bayonetknife · covert1 in 25,000$284 436 gems0.4%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$270 415 gems0.4%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.4%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$255 393 gems0.4%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$228 350 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$223 343 gems0.3%10.2—
★ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$212 325 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$211 325 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$211 324 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$210 323 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$209 321 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$201 309 gems0.3%10.2—
★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$194 299 gems0.3%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$182 281 gems0.3%10.2—
★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$155 239 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$155 238 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$143 220 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$139 214 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$135 208 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$133 205 gems0.2%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$109 167 gems0.2%20.2—
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$85.51 132 gems0.1%10.2—
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert1 in 25,000$80.67 124 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$78.01 120 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 25,000$75.74 117 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$74.56 115 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$73.63 113 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 25,000$66.05 102 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 25,000$63.30 97.38 gems0.1%00.2—
★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 25,000$62.86 96.7 gems0.1%00.2—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$45.70 70.3 gems5.5%2018.51.08×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$21.41 32.94 gems8.5%6561.61.06×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$8.60 13.23 gems1.0%1518.50.81×
P90 | Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$5.02 7.72 gems2.0%4761.60.76×
G3SG1 | The Executioner (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 94$4.97 7.65 gems2.0%8161.61.32×
Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 38$3.54 5.45 gems3.5%150153.80.98×
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 38$2.50 3.84 gems2.5%161153.81.05×
R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec13.3%$2.05 3.16 gems10.2%754769.50.98×
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 38$1.67 2.57 gems1.7%166153.81.08×
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 38$1.42 2.18 gems1.4%139153.80.90×
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 38$1.39 2.14 gems1.4%156153.81.01×
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 38$1.34 2.06 gems1.3%149153.80.97×
SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New)weapon · mil spec13.3%$0.85 1.31 gems4.2%708769.70.92×
AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec13.3%$0.31 0.47 gems1.5%831769.51.08×
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)weapon · mil spec13.3%$0.29 0.45 gems1.5%758769.50.99×
Sawed-Off | Yorick (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff13.3%$0.25 0.38 gems1.2%752769.50.98×
P2000 | Imperial (Factory New)weapon · mil spec13.3%$0.20 0.31 gems1.0%815769.51.06×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambitknife · covert$2.974.57 gems$7701,185 gems259.3x
★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$2.974.57 gems$413636 gems139.1x
★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$2.974.57 gems$358550 gems120.4x
★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$2.974.57 gems$354545 gems119.3x
★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · CovertVortex$2.974.57 gems$223343 gems75.04x
★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert$2.974.57 gems$201309 gems67.52x
★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife$2.974.57 gems$182281 gems61.41x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.974.57 gems$0.310.47 gems0.10x
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$2.974.57 gems$1.392.14 gems0.47x
R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.974.57 gems$2.053.16 gems0.69x
SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.974.57 gems$0.851.31 gems0.29x
Sawed-Off | Yorick (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$2.974.57 gems$0.250.38 gems0.08x
SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New)weapon · mil specElizabeth$2.974.57 gems$0.851.31 gems0.29x
Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.974.57 gems$1.672.57 gems0.56x
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.974.57 gems$1.422.18 gems0.48x
SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.974.57 gems$0.851.31 gems0.29x
P2000 | Imperial (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.974.57 gems$0.200.31 gems0.07x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$2.9789.93%82
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 3.2%#8847ff 5.3%restricted 8.0%mil spec 66.6%Mythical 2.7%#4b69ff 13.3%best hit $770 (259.3x)