Rinsed
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.16
74.09 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $43.34 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.30%
1,288 openings, odds method
Variance
18.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,297 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $3,770 5,800 gems | 17.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.16× |
| Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 333 | $1,593 2,450 gems | 11.0% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9 | 1 in 200 | $898 1,381 gems | 10.4% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $344 530 gems | 7.9% | 18 | 13.0 | 1.39× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $258 396 gems | 11.9% | 27 | 25.9 | 1.04× |
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $196 301 gems | 13.6% | 50 | 38.9 | 1.29× |
| Sticker | Cloud9 (Foil) | DreamHack 2014sticker · exotic | 1 in 33 | $124 191 gems | 8.6% | 38 | 38.9 | 0.98× |
| Dual Berettas | Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $89.96 138 gems | 10.4% | 55 | 64.9 | 0.85× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $64.86 99.79 gems | 7.5% | 74 | 64.9 | 1.14× |
| Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 80.0% | $0.75 1.15 gems | 1.4% | 1,023 | 1037.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9conq$48.1674.09 gems$8981,381 gems18.64x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $48.16 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.2%high 0.3%#B0C3D9 0.5%restricted 8.0%exotic 3.0%violet 80.0%best hit $3,770 (78.28x)