River Rapids
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$258.77
398 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $232.89 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.25%
205 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 205 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 19.0% | $1,141 1,756 gems | 93.1% | 45 | 38.9 | 1.16× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $82.19 126 gems | 1.8% | 21 | 10.2 | 2.05× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $48.59 74.75 gems | 1.0% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $46.62 71.73 gems | 1.0% | 7 | 10.2 | 0.68× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 22.0% | $20.33 31.28 gems | 1.9% | 46 | 45.1 | 1.02× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 22.0% | $11.34 17.44 gems | 1.1% | 38 | 45.1 | 0.84× |
| PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 22.0% | $0.92 1.41 gems | 0.1% | 38 | 45.1 | 0.84× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $259 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 19.0%covert 10.0%restricted 27.0%classified 22.0%mil spec 22.0%best hit $1,141 (4.41x)