Royal Flush
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$45.02
69.26 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $40.51 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.27%
656 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 656 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $885 1,362 gems | 10.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $632 972 gems | 7.8% | 8 | 3.3 | 2.44× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $281 432 gems | 34.6% | 28 | 32.8 | 0.85× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $177 272 gems | 21.8% | 28 | 32.8 | 0.85× |
| Galil AR | Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $73.98 114 gems | 9.1% | 27 | 32.8 | 0.82× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $41.68 64.13 gems | 5.1% | 32 | 32.8 | 0.98× |
| SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $31.49 48.44 gems | 3.9% | 23 | 32.8 | 0.70× |
| SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $14.37 22.11 gems | 1.8% | 33 | 32.8 | 1.01× |
| SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 20 | $6.56 10.09 gems | 0.8% | 23 | 32.8 | 0.70× |
| UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 64.0% | $2.61 4.01 gems | 4.1% | 450 | 419.8 | 1.07× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertSilly Kangaroo$45.0269.26 gems$8851,362 gems19.67x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $45.02 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.5%extraordinary 0.5%restricted 5.0%pink 74.0%classified 5.0%#d32ee6 5.0%best hit $885 (19.67x)