Safe & Sound
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.49
28.44 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $16.63 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.89%
1,800 openings, odds method
Variance
12.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,828 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $1,560 2,400 gems | 9.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| ★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $246 378 gems | 14.8% | 20 | 18.3 | 1.09× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Vanillaknife | 1 in 100 | $239 367 gems | 14.4% | 23 | 18.3 | 1.26× |
| ★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $176 270 gems | 21.1% | 34 | 36.6 | 0.93× |
| AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $64.32 98.96 gems | 19.3% | 101 | 91.4 | 1.11× |
| AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $32.16 49.47 gems | 9.7% | 99 | 91.4 | 1.08× |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $3.44 5.29 gems | 2.1% | 195 | 182.8 | 1.07× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $2.89 4.45 gems | 2.6% | 259 | 274.2 | 0.94× |
| AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 25.9% | $1.87 2.87 gems | 2.9% | 424 | 473.5 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 35.0% | $1.79 2.76 gems | 3.8% | 672 | 639.8 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$18.4928.44 gems$1,5602,400 gems84.40x
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$18.4928.44 gems$3.445.29 gems0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $18.49 | 89.97% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 18.0%other 1.0%red 5.0%classified 15.0%#d32ee6 25.9%Legendary 35.0%best hit $1,560 (84.40x)