Should’ve Cashed
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$86.27
133 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $77.64 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.17%
452 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 40 | $1,309 2,014 gems | 42.2% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 40 | $333 512 gems | 10.7% | 19 | 11.3 | 1.68× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $209 322 gems | 13.5% | 18 | 22.6 | 0.80× |
| AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 20 | $175 269 gems | 11.3% | 23 | 22.6 | 1.02× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $76.70 118 gems | 9.9% | 46 | 45.2 | 1.02× |
| FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $45.52 70.03 gems | 5.9% | 50 | 45.2 | 1.11× |
| SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 15.0% | $20.25 31.15 gems | 3.9% | 66 | 67.8 | 0.97× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $6.92 10.65 gems | 1.3% | 65 | 67.8 | 0.96× |
| MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $4.19 6.45 gems | 0.8% | 67 | 67.8 | 0.99× |
| Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6 | 20.0% | $2.30 3.54 gems | 0.6% | 86 | 90.4 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubymotsibaerli$86.27133 gems$1,3092,014 gems15.18x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyconq$86.27133 gems$1,3092,014 gems15.18x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$86.27133 gems$333512 gems3.86x
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$86.27133 gems$76.70118 gems0.89x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $86.27 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%rare 5.0%extraordinary 10.0%Legendary 15.0%classified 15.0%violet 15.0%#d32ee6 20.0%best hit $1,309 (15.18x)