Sidearm Showdown
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.55
25.46 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $14.89 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.29%
2,019 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,049 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $80.44 124 gems | 54.0% | 194 | 204.9 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $27.79 42.75 gems | 18.7% | 199 | 204.9 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $16.45 25.3 gems | 11.0% | 221 | 204.9 | 1.08× |
| P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 10.0% | $10.78 16.59 gems | 7.2% | 234 | 204.9 | 1.14× |
| Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $6.79 10.44 gems | 4.6% | 216 | 204.9 | 1.05× |
| P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $3.52 5.42 gems | 2.4% | 188 | 204.9 | 0.92× |
| Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $1.55 2.39 gems | 1.0% | 205 | 204.9 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $0.82 1.26 gems | 0.6% | 182 | 204.9 | 0.89× |
| Five-SeveN | Buddy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.38 0.59 gems | 0.5% | 410 | 409.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $16.55 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 30.0%restricted 40.0%#d32ee6 10.0%pink 10.0%industrial 10.0%best hit —