Snowballer
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.34
28.21 gems
Advertised RTP
89.26%
EV $16.37 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.35%
1,984 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,038 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $376 578 gems | 23.0% | 11 | 20.4 | 0.54× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $109 168 gems | 6.7% | 20 | 20.4 | 0.98× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $85.48 132 gems | 5.2% | 20 | 20.4 | 0.98× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $62.52 96.19 gems | 11.5% | 66 | 61.1 | 1.08× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 14.0% | $18.73 28.81 gems | 16.0% | 277 | 285.3 | 0.97× |
| FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $12.88 19.82 gems | 15.7% | 422 | 407.6 | 1.04× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $8.87 13.65 gems | 10.8% | 382 | 407.6 | 0.94× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 40.0% | $4.53 6.97 gems | 11.1% | 840 | 815.2 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covertKolbuniun Wadicus$18.3428.21 gems$12.8819.82 gems0.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.26%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $18.34 | 89.26% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 41.0%covert knife 2.0%covert 57.0%best hit —