SPACE
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.08
46.27 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $27.06 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.79%
399 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 415 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic | 1 in 33 | $261 402 gems | 29.0% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.72× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $184 283 gems | 20.4% | 8 | 12.4 | 0.64× |
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $122 187 gems | 13.5% | 14 | 12.4 | 1.12× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $76.26 117 gems | 8.5% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.04× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $41.20 63.38 gems | 4.6% | 15 | 12.4 | 1.20× |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $21.44 32.99 gems | 11.9% | 54 | 62.2 | 0.87× |
| MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red | 20.0% | $10.14 15.6 gems | 7.5% | 75 | 83.0 | 0.90× |
| P2000 | Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $4.25 6.54 gems | 3.9% | 107 | 103.7 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | Space Soldiers | London 2018sticker · High Grade | 25.0% | $0.93 1.43 gems | 0.9% | 120 | 103.8 | 1.16× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $30.08 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 3.0%covert 21.0%classified 6.0%red 20.0%restricted 25.0%High Grade 25.0%best hit —