Space Blue

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$129.81

200 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $116.83 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.00%

1,430 openings, odds method

Variance

33.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 67

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

100 openings · below min

7 days

78.36%±31.651,298 openings

30 days

88.00%±30.151,430 openings

since tracking started

88.00%±30.151,430 openings

-0.5%111.8%224.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	100	109.19%±114.0	—	odds
7d	1,298	78.36%±31.7	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,430	88.00%±30.2	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,430	88.00%±30.2	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,510 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$9,066 13,948 gems	38.8%	7	7.5	0.93×
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$3,797 5,841 gems	32.5%	14	15.1	0.93×
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$1,479 2,275 gems	12.7%	16	15.1	1.06×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$714 1,099 gems	6.1%	14	15.1	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$293 450 gems	5.0%	23	30.2	0.76×
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$79.37 122 gems	1.7%	29	37.7	0.77×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$37.28 57.36 gems	1.9%	95	90.6	1.05×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	10.0%	$7.28 11.2 gems	0.6%	134	151.0	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	10.0%	$3.68 5.66 gems	0.3%	146	151.0	0.97×
USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	10.0%	$1.74 2.67 gems	0.1%	147	151.0	0.97×
Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$1.51 2.33 gems	0.1%	165	151.0	1.09×
MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blue	46.0%	$0.21 0.33 gems	0.1%	720	694.6	1.04×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$130200 gems$9,06613,948 gems69.84x10h

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$130200 gems$9,06613,948 gems69.84x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$130200 gems$9,06613,948 gems69.84x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$130200 gems$9,06613,948 gems69.84x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$130200 gems$9,06613,948 gems69.84x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$130200 gems$9,06613,948 gems69.84x7d

AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$130200 gems$3,7975,841 gems29.25x20h

AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$130200 gems$3,7975,841 gems29.25x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blue$130200 gems$0.210.33 gems0.00x36m

M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted$130200 gems$293450 gems2.26x36m

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$130200 gems$7.2811.2 gems0.06x36m

MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blue$130200 gems$0.210.33 gems0.00x36m

USP-S | Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$130200 gems$1.742.67 gems0.01x36m

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$130200 gems$7.2811.2 gems0.06x6h

MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blue$130200 gems$0.210.33 gems0.00x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$130	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.5%covert 2.0%classified 9.5%restricted 2.0%Mythical 10.0%pink 10.0%#8847ff 10.0%mil spec 10.0%blue 46.0%best hit $9,066 (69.84x)