Stay Frosty
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$181.81
280 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $163.63 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.54%
714 openings, odds method
Variance
16.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 754 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $4,280 6,584 gems | 78.5% | 26 | 22.6 | 1.15× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny | 1 in 25 | $373 573 gems | 9.1% | 31 | 30.2 | 1.03× |
| ★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $252 388 gems | 7.7% | 33 | 37.7 | 0.88× |
| G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 17 | $48.09 73.99 gems | 1.8% | 39 | 45.2 | 0.86× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $32.25 49.61 gems | 1.4% | 45 | 52.8 | 0.85× |
| P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $10.82 16.64 gems | 1.0% | 93 | 113.1 | 0.82× |
| AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $2.99 4.6 gems | 0.5% | 200 | 188.5 | 1.06× |
| UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 35.0% | $0.58 0.89 gems | 0.1% | 287 | 263.9 | 1.09× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertxCK97x On Kick | CODE : CK97$182280 gems$4,2806,584 gems23.54x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $182 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.0%sunny 4.0%industrial 6.0%classified 7.0%mil spec 15.0%restricted 60.0%best hit $4,280 (23.54x)