The Outcast
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.90
19.84 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $11.60 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.39%
6,428 openings, odds method
Variance
23.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,550 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covertsmschico =]===>$12.9019.84 gems$6921,064 gems53.65x
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covertTL_HoNest$12.9019.84 gems$6921,064 gems53.65x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.90 | 89.97% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%restricted 24.0%#EB4B4B 2.0%classified 13.0%#8847ff 20.0%Common 20.0%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit $692 (53.65x)