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The Parlay Dream

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$166.37
256 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $149.74 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.05%
668 openings, odds method
Variance
15.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
38 openings · below min
7 days
100.94%±34.53487 openings
30 days
102.05%±29.48668 openings
since tracking started
102.05%±29.48668 openings
56.0%180.3%304.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h38180.09%±123.6—odds
7d487100.94%±34.5+0.6σodds
30d668102.05%±29.5+0.8σodds
All668102.05%±29.5+0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 400$7,475 11,500 gems12.5%11.70.59×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 400$6,497 9,995 gems10.8%21.71.18×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 400$5,278 8,120 gems8.8%21.71.18×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 400$4,285 6,592 gems7.2%21.71.18×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 400$2,671 4,109 gems4.5%11.70.59×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 400$1,752 2,695 gems2.9%11.70.59×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 400$1,463 2,250 gems2.4%31.71.76×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 400$1,398 2,150 gems2.3%01.70.00×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 200$1,281 1,970 gems4.3%43.41.18×
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 200$1,235 1,900 gems4.1%83.42.35×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 200$1,206 1,856 gems4.0%73.42.06×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 200$1,180 1,815 gems3.9%73.42.06×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 31 in 200$1,162 1,787 gems3.9%63.41.76×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 200$1,105 1,700 gems3.7%23.40.59×
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare95.0%$38.79 59.68 gems24.6%634646.00.98×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$166256 gems$7,47511,500 gems44.93x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyGropus The Grand$166256 gems$6,4979,995 gems39.05x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$166256 gems$6,4979,995 gems39.05x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$166256 gems$5,2788,120 gems31.72x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$166256 gems$5,2788,120 gems31.72x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$166256 gems$4,2856,592 gems25.75x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$166256 gems$4,2856,592 gems25.75x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$166256 gems$2,6714,109 gems16.05x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$166256 gems$1,7522,695 gems10.53x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$166256 gems$1,4632,250 gems8.79x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$166256 gems$38.7959.68 gems0.23x
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$166256 gems$38.7959.68 gems0.23x
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$166256 gems$38.7959.68 gems0.23x
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$166256 gems$38.7959.68 gems0.23x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$166256 gems$1,2061,856 gems7.25x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$166256 gems$5,2788,120 gems31.72x
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$166256 gems$38.7959.68 gems0.23x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$166256 gems$1,2351,900 gems7.42x
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$166256 gems$38.7959.68 gems0.23x
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$166256 gems$38.7959.68 gems0.23x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$16690.00%15
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.0%sunny 0.5%gold 0.5%rare 95.0%best hit $7,475 (44.93x)