Toss Up
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$46.86
72.09 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $42.17 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.24%
1,034 openings, odds method
Variance
9.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,054 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 40 | $865 1,331 gems | 51.3% | 23 | 26.4 | 0.87× |
| AWP | LongDog (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 40 | $284 438 gems | 16.9% | 29 | 26.4 | 1.10× |
| AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 40 | $169 259 gems | 10.0% | 30 | 26.4 | 1.14× |
| AWP | Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 40 | $54.24 83.44 gems | 3.2% | 29 | 26.4 | 1.10× |
| AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $37.42 57.57 gems | 4.4% | 56 | 52.7 | 1.06× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $22.43 34.51 gems | 5.3% | 109 | 105.4 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $12.01 18.48 gems | 4.3% | 152 | 158.1 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified | 30.0% | $4.07 6.26 gems | 2.9% | 302 | 316.2 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $2.42 3.72 gems | 1.7% | 324 | 316.2 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $46.86 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 2.5%rare 5.0%Legendary 2.5%pink 5.0%covert 10.0%restricted 15.0%Classified 30.0%classified 30.0%best hit $865 (18.46x)