Urban Warfare
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.10
7.85 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4.59 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.81%
3,331 openings, odds method
Variance
12.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,425 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $283 436 gems | 12.3% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 125 | $123 190 gems | 21.5% | 28 | 27.4 | 1.02× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $35.83 55.13 gems | 31.2% | 134 | 137.0 | 0.98× |
| Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $7.64 11.75 gems | 16.6% | 326 | 342.5 | 0.95× |
| Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $6.01 9.25 gems | 13.1% | 323 | 342.5 | 0.94× |
| M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $2.11 3.25 gems | 2.3% | 181 | 171.2 | 1.06× |
| Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $1.75 2.69 gems | 1.9% | 176 | 171.2 | 1.03× |
| PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 65.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 1.0% | 2,252 | 2226.3 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New)weapon · Consumer GradeAlpinLoot$5.107.85 gems$0.070.11 gems0.01x
Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · classifiedPertti Eräreikä$5.107.85 gems$7.6411.75 gems1.50x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.10 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.2%Covert 0.8%classified 10.0%industrial 15.0%restricted 5.0%Consumer Grade 65.0%best hit $283 (55.55x)