VoidBorn

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$27.87

42.88 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $25.08 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.42%

1,510 openings, odds method

Variance

17.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

48 openings · below min

7 days

99.72%±25.011,058 openings

30 days

91.42%±20.941,510 openings

since tracking started

91.42%±20.941,510 openings

-0.5%96.8%194.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	48	75.73%±117.4	—	odds
7d	1,058	99.72%±25.0	+0.8σ	odds
30d	1,510	91.42%±20.9	+0.1σ	odds
All	1,510	91.42%±20.9	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,556 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 200	$1,234 1,899 gems	24.6%	8	7.8	1.03×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 200	$1,023 1,573 gems	20.4%	9	7.8	1.16×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$288 443 gems	11.5%	15	15.6	0.96×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$65.31 100 gems	5.2%	26	31.1	0.84×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$47.11 72.48 gems	11.3%	79	93.4	0.85×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	10.0%	$29.01 44.63 gems	11.6%	148	155.6	0.95×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	10.0%	$13.53 20.81 gems	5.4%	153	155.6	0.98×
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$12.29 18.91 gems	4.9%	153	155.6	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	20.0%	$3.93 6.04 gems	3.1%	322	311.2	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$1.71 2.63 gems	1.4%	320	311.2	1.03×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$0.88 1.35 gems	0.7%	323	311.2	1.04×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 12:30 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$27.8742.88 gems$1,2341,899 gems44.28x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$27.8742.88 gems$1,2341,899 gems44.28x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyHolingBing$27.8742.88 gems$1,2341,899 gems44.28x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$27.8742.88 gems$1,2341,899 gems44.28x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$27.8742.88 gems$1,2341,899 gems44.28x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert$27.8742.88 gems$1,0231,573 gems36.69x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert$27.8742.88 gems$1,0231,573 gems36.69x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$27.8742.88 gems$3.936.04 gems0.14x2h

MAC-10 | Last Dive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$27.8742.88 gems$0.881.35 gems0.03x2h

MAC-10 | Last Dive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedPight Tussy$27.8742.88 gems$0.881.35 gems0.03x2h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$27.8742.88 gems$3.936.04 gems0.14x3h

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient$27.8742.88 gems$13.5320.81 gems0.49x3h

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert$27.8742.88 gems$29.0144.63 gems1.04x3h

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient$27.8742.88 gems$13.5320.81 gems0.49x3h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$27.8742.88 gems$3.936.04 gems0.14x3h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedZed_$27.8742.88 gems$3.936.04 gems0.14x3h

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$27.8742.88 gems$1.712.63 gems0.06x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$27.87	89.99%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.5%Covert 0.5%covert 13.0%classified 36.0%Ancient 10.0%restricted 40.0%best hit $1,234 (44.28x)