What the Flip
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$138.42
213 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $124.58 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.23%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 9.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $559 861 gems | 22.4% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 15.0% | $298 459 gems | 35.9% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 30.0% | $159 245 gems | 38.4% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× |
| Sticker | Flipsid3 Tactics (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · Exotic | 1 in 100 | $86.37 133 gems | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $50.11 77.1 gems | 0.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 33 | $19.51 30.01 gems | 0.5% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| P2000 | Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $8.82 13.57 gems | 0.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
| Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $4.74 7.29 gems | 0.8% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.35× |
| Tec-9 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $1.79 2.75 gems | 0.3% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $138 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%covert knife 30.0%Exotic 1.0%mil spec 22.0%#d32ee6 3.0%classified 4.0%restricted 20.0%best hit $559 (4.04x)