Winter Offensive Weapon Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.45

6.84 gems

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $4.00 from 78 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.22%

5,240 openings, odds method

Variance

84.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 61

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

108.88%±48.341,395 openings

7 days

105.19%±26.794,541 openings

30 days

99.22%±24.945,240 openings

since tracking started

99.22%±24.945,240 openings

60.0%109.0%158.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,395	108.88%±48.3	+0.8σ	odds
7d	4,541	105.19%±26.8	+1.1σ	odds
30d	5,240	99.22%±24.9	+0.7σ	odds
All	5,240	99.22%±24.9	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,290 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,684 5,667 gems	3.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$3,119 4,799 gems	3.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,576 2,425 gems	1.6%	1	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$1,277 1,964 gems	1.3%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,169 1,798 gems	1.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	1.0%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,049 1,614 gems	1.0%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$943 1,451 gems	0.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$800 1,230 gems	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$780 1,200 gems	0.8%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambitknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$770 1,185 gems	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$760 1,169 gems	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$747 1,150 gems	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$735 1,131 gems	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 25,000	$702 1,080 gems	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$614 945 gems	0.6%	1	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$611 940 gems	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$568 874 gems	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$567 873 gems	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$541 832 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$487 749 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$483 742 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$458 704 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$456 702 gems	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$442 681 gems	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$442 680 gems	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$429 660 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$413 636 gems	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$394 606 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$388 597 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$358 550 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$354 545 gems	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$351 540 gems	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$300 461 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$284 436 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$270 415 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.3%	2	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$255 393 gems	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$228 350 gems	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$223 343 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$212 325 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$211 325 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$211 324 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$210 323 gems	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$209 321 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$201 309 gems	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$194 299 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$182 281 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$155 239 gems	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$155 238 gems	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$143 220 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$139 214 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$135 208 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$133 205 gems	0.1%	1	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$109 167 gems	0.1%	2	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$85.51 132 gems	0.1%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$81.90 126 gems	6.6%	20	16.9	1.18×
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert	1 in 25,000	$80.67 124 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$78.01 120 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 25,000	$75.74 117 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$74.56 115 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$73.63 113 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 25,000	$66.05 102 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25,000	$63.30 97.38 gems	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 25,000	$62.86 96.7 gems	0.1%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$43.98 67.66 gems	11.7%	56	56.4	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$15.15 23.3 gems	4.0%	69	56.4	1.22×
P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$10.39 15.99 gems	2.8%	67	56.4	1.19×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$8.12 12.49 gems	8.1%	221	211.3	1.05×
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$4.03 6.2 gems	4.0%	213	211.3	1.01×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$3.56 5.47 gems	3.6%	206	211.3	0.97×
Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$3.42 5.26 gems	3.4%	202	211.3	0.96×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$2.93 4.51 gems	0.2%	16	16.9	0.95×
Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	20.0%	$1.74 2.68 gems	8.7%	1,037	1056.9	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$1.06 1.63 gems	5.3%	1,044	1056.9	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$0.98 1.5 gems	4.9%	1,125	1056.9	1.06×
M249 \| Magma (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$0.75 1.15 gems	3.7%	994	1057.0	0.94×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$4.456.84 gems$1,5762,425 gems354.6x3d

★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · coverteSk;$4.456.84 gems$1,0491,614 gems236.0x21h

★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert$4.456.84 gems$1,0491,614 gems236.0x4d

★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · CoverteSk;$4.456.84 gems$7801,200 gems175.4x17h

★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$4.456.84 gems$614945 gems138.1x16h

★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert$4.456.84 gems$442681 gems99.52x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife$4.456.84 gems$442680 gems99.42x6d

★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$4.456.84 gems$413636 gems92.91x1d

★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$4.456.84 gems$354545 gems79.68x3d

★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny$4.456.84 gems$255393 gems57.44x14h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.456.84 gems$3.425.26 gems0.77x20m

MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.456.84 gems$4.036.2 gems0.91x20m

Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.456.84 gems$8.1212.49 gems1.83x20m

Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec GradeAlboholics$4.456.84 gems$1.742.68 gems0.39x20m

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$4.456.84 gems$1.061.63 gems0.24x24m

Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.456.84 gems$8.1212.49 gems1.83x24m

M249 | Magma (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$4.456.84 gems$0.751.15 gems0.17x27m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC	$4.45	89.99%	78

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 16.0%Mil Spec Grade 20.0%mil spec 59.9%best hit $1,576 (354.6x)