Winter's Embrace
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$278.28
428 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $250.45 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.23%
138 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 138 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 100 | $5,699 8,767 gems | 22.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $3,523 5,420 gems | 14.1% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.90× |
| ★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,416 2,178 gems | 5.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,014 1,560 gems | 4.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $848 1,305 gems | 3.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 10.0% | $632 972 gems | 25.2% | 16 | 13.8 | 1.16× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Factory New)weapon | 20.0% | $133 205 gems | 10.6% | 26 | 27.6 | 0.94× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $89.12 137 gems | 10.7% | 43 | 41.4 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 35.0% | $25.42 39.11 gems | 3.6% | 46 | 48.3 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$278428 gems$5,6998,767 gems20.48x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $278 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 34.0%classified 36.0%rare 10.0%other 20.0%best hit $5,699 (20.48x)