Aston Martin DB12
A case on csgo.net (Ultra), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1,199.00
Advertised RTP
70.33%
EV $843.25 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.61%
64 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
38.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 64 openings and 24.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 70.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1,199 | 70.33% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1,199 | 70.15% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1,199 | 69.99% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1,199 | 69.97% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1,199 | 70.24% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1,199 | 70.55% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1,199 | 70.56% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1,199 | 70.54% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1,199 | 70.60% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1,199 | 70.66% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1,199 | 71.06% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1,199 | 71.03% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1,199 | 71.03% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.06% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.03% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.04% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1,199 | 71.05% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1,199 | 70.99% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.10% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1,199 | 71.43% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1,199 | 71.44% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.35% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.06% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.15% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1,199 | 71.14% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1,199 | 71.15% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 39.2%classified 10.4%extraordinary 23.7%gold 14.2%#ffd700 12.5%best hit $3,954 (3.30x)