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A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.80
Advertised RTP
78.33%
EV $0.63 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.84%
1,034 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,034 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 78.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.80 | 78.33% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.80 | 78.27% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.80 | 78.13% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.80 | 78.57% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.80 | 78.88% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.80 | 78.90% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.80 | 78.87% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.80 | 78.94% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.80 | 78.93% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.80 | 79.36% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.80 | 79.42% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.80 | 79.39% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.80 | 79.34% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.80 | 79.29% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.80 | 79.48% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.49% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.41% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.51% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.42% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.48% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.38% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.55% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.80 | 79.70% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.80 | 79.72% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.87% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.63% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.57% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.66% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.80 | 79.58% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.80 | 79.53% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 0.1%pink 0.1%#d32ce6 0.0%Legendary 0.6%restricted 8.9%Rare 1.4%violet 22.0%#8847ff 12.5%mil spec 35.0%#4b69ff 9.7%Mythical 9.7%best hit —