Big boots

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$119.00

Advertised RTP

69.01%

EV $82.12 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.28%

201 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

71.50%±9.74181 openings

30 days

71.28%±9.26201 openings

since tracking started

71.28%±9.26201 openings

40.0%64.3%88.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	64.39%±23.5	—	odds
7d	181	71.50%±9.74	+0.4σ	odds
30d	201	71.28%±9.26	+0.3σ	odds
All	201	71.28%±9.26	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 201 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 9,651	$3,271	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,540	$2,970	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 8,624	$1,993	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,403	$1,138	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 4,801	$1,050	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,419	$865	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,287	$716	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,941	$667	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,222	$553	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,218	$553	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,108	$533	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 888	$489	0.7%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 834	$478	0.7%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 608	$424	0.9%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 321	$335	1.3%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 89	$205	2.8%	1	2.3	0.44×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$197	3.0%	1	2.5	0.40×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$162	3.9%	3	3.9	0.76×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 48	$156	4.0%	7	4.2	1.66×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$127	5.0%	6	6.5	0.93×
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$122	5.1%	5	7.0	0.72×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 28	$120	5.2%	10	7.2	1.39×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 25	$111	5.5%	7	8.2	0.86×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$97.36	5.9%	7	10.0	0.70×
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$92.49	6.0%	11	10.7	1.03×
AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$91.11	6.0%	15	10.9	1.37×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$71.95	6.1%	14	13.9	1.00×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$70.56	6.1%	13	14.2	0.92×
SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$62.61	5.8%	25	15.3	1.63×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$53.49	5.3%	15	16.3	0.92×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$44.84	4.5%	16	16.6	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 12	$43.24	4.3%	22	16.5	1.33×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 12	$40.63	4.0%	10	16.4	0.61×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 12	$37.55	3.7%	0	16.1	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryytb: Lukasscz$119$5374.51x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified123123123$119$44.840.38x2h

P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSEvER$119$71.500.60x6h

SG 553 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted240 km/h peek хасбулла$119$62.450.52x6h

USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedAlex Mercer$119$44.720.38x9h

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryMPC TURN OFF CAPS$119$1191.00x10h

AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · redMPC TURN OFF CAPS$119$1120.94x10h

P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classifiedfrizy1235$119$90.830.76x10h

AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedfrizy1235$119$91.180.77x10h

SG 553 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted-ʙʟᴀᴅᴇ$119$62.480.53x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 69.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$119	69.01%	34
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$119	68.85%	34
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$119	68.84%	33
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$119	69.10%	33
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$119	69.41%	33
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$119	69.41%	33
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$119	69.40%	33
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$119	69.46%	33
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$119	69.51%	33
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$119	69.90%	33
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$119	69.88%	33
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$119	69.87%	33
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$119	69.90%	33
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$119	69.90%	33
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$119	69.90%	33
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$119	69.91%	33
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$119	69.88%	33
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$119	69.89%	33
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$119	69.90%	33
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$119	69.90%	33
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$119	69.84%	33
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$119	69.95%	33
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$119	70.27%	33
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$119	70.27%	33
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$119	70.19%	33
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$119	69.91%	33
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$119	69.99%	33
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$119	69.98%	33
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$119	69.99%	33
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$119	69.97%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 22.8%covert 16.6%extraordinary 3.7%restricted 28.4%#ffd700 0.0%gold 0.1%red 12.3%Ancient 16.2%best hit $537 (4.51x)